The world, unfortunately, is not ready for a powerful volcanic eruption, which is quite likely in the next few decades, according to British experts from the Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge and Birmingham. sound the alarm. The indirect effects of such a thing – beyond direct destruction – would be severe on the climate and the food chain.

The probability of a giant volcanic eruption (7 on the Volcano Explosivity Index-VOI) anywhere on Earth in the next few years is estimated at one in six. What the scientists who published it in the journal Nature describe as a “roll of the dice” to show that the problem needs to be taken more seriously than it has been before, when attention is turned to other great risks to humanity. (climate crisis, asteroid impact, etc.).

The experts stress that “there is a widespread misconception that the risk of a major volcanic eruption is low” and note that the current lack of government investment in monitoring and responding to a volcanic disaster is “reckless.” That’s why they are calling for early action, such as raising public awareness of the volcanic hazard, as well as bolder initiatives, such as improving magma management in dangerous volcanoes.

“Data collected from ice cores on the frequency of volcanic eruptions over long periods of time indicates that the chance of a magnitude seven eruption over the next 100 years is one in six. This is equivalent to throwing a dice. Such gigantic eruptions have caused dramatic climate change and the collapse of civilizations in the distant past,” said CSER researcher Dr. Lara Mani.

According to him, the risk of a giant volcanic eruption is hundreds of times higher than the risk of an asteroid or comet falling to Earth with a diameter of one kilometer. “Each year, hundreds of millions of dollars are allocated to combat asteroid threats, but there is a serious lack of global funding and coordination in preparation for a volcanic eruption. This is something that needs to change urgently. We completely underestimate the danger that volcanoes pose to our society,” he added.

The last major volcanic eruption on Earth occurred in Tonga in January of this year. Experts estimate that if it had lasted longer, emitted more ash and gases, or occurred in an area with vital infrastructure such as the Mediterranean Sea, its local and global consequences would have been catastrophic. “The eruption in Tonga was the volcanic equivalent of an asteroid blasting past Earth and should be seen as a wake-up call,” Manny said.

The researchers calculated, based on the study of traces of sulfur in ancient ice cores, that the volcanic eruption is 10 to 100 times more powerful than the eruption in Tonga, occurs approximately every 625 years, which is twice the frequency previously thought.

Volcanologist Dr. Mike Cassidy from Birmingham noted that “the last eruption of magnitude 7 occurred in 1815 in Indonesia. An estimated 100,000 people died on the spot and global temperatures dropped an average of one degree, resulting in massive crop damage, famine, violent uprisings and epidemics during what became known as the “year without summer.” We now live in a world with eight times the population and at least 40 times the trade. Our complex global networks make us even more vulnerable to the impacts of a big bang.”

Experts report that the economic damage from a powerful volcanic eruption will be in the order of several trillion dollars, which is comparable to the scale of a major pandemic.

So far, scientists have pinpointed only a few of the 97 major volcanic eruptions estimated to have occurred over the past 60,000 years, based on geological records. This means that there may be dozens of volcanoes on our planet that can cause very destructive eruptions, but which have not yet been identified.

“We may not even be aware of relatively recent eruptions due to the lack of research into the cores of the seas and lakes, especially in the abandoned areas of Southeast Asia. “Volcanoes can remain dormant for a long time, but nevertheless they are capable of sudden and unusual destruction,” said Cassidy.

British experts note that there is room for improved monitoring of volcanoes, since from 1950 to the present, only about every fourth eruption (27%) has had a seismograph installed next to them, while only a third of even this data has devices are included in the global database of volcanoes.

Scientists call, among other things, to intensify research on direct geo-intervention (“geoengineering”) on potentially dangerous volcanoes. “A direct impact on the behavior of volcanoes may seem unthinkable, but containment of asteroids was the same until 2016, when NASA created the Planetary Defense Coordination Office,” Manny said.

RES – OIE