Russian military experts, including those who show blind loyalty to the Kremlin, are increasingly restless and are beginning to sound the alarm about the prolongation of the war in Ukraine and its consequences for Moscow, writes the Center for the Analysis of European Politics.

The Russian public is increasingly sharing these doubts about the unfolding of events, despite the total censorship established by the Kremlin.

Independent sociologists from the Chronicles research project noted in mid-July that the percentage of Russians who support the “special operation” dropped by 9% to 55% in just 6 weeks.

This is the lowest level since the start of the war, and the decline is expected to continue, according to researchers.

Interestingly, a month ago, pro-Kremlin Telegram channels also admitted that, despite high patriotic sentiments and popular preparation for “confrontation with the entire West,” Russian society expressed a clear desire to end the “special forces operation” launched by President Vladimir Putin on February 24.

Apart from a few marginal cases, the doubts expressed by Russian military experts are new, especially regarding their calls for an early end to the active phase of the war.

A Russian military expert compares the war in Ukraine with the war in Vietnam

Their arguments are cloaked in acceptable regime propaganda (that protracted war benefits the West and “Kyiv nationalists”), but their key message is that Russia must not allow this to happen.

Oleksandr Zhilin, a former colonel of the dreaded GRU (General Intelligence Directorate) who is now the director of the Center for the Study of Public Problems in the Sphere of National Security, recently argued in mildly apocalyptic terms that a protracted war would lead to “destroyed economies, bleeding armies inflicting great losses to countries at war,” and that there is a risk that Russia will find itself on the sidelines of international politics.

His comments are all the more remarkable because Zhilin is known as a hardline supporter of Ukraine, which is why he is regularly invited to Russian state propaganda channels.

The former intelligence colonel compared recent calls for an escalation of the war in Ukraine to the US actions in Vietnam and acknowledged that innocent unarmed people had died, while calling for a non-military solution so that Russia could coexist with Ukraine and “have the prospect of normalizing relations”. “.

PHOTO: Dmytro Astakhov / TASS / Profimedia

Pessimistic comments published, including those close to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow

At the end of July, several articles with similar comments appeared on the Military Review website, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

In one of them, the author Oleksandr Odintsov noted that the Russian strategy of “limited and long-range strikes against the Armed Forces of Ukraine” had reached its limit, and the Ukrainian military showed unexpected resilience, and the Ukrainian military was ready to die for its ideas.

Therefore, Odintsov noted that if the Russian military plans to surround Ukrainian forces, they should increase their numbers at least twice.

He also wrote that if the Kremlin plans an even wider offensive in the direction of Mykolaiv and Odesa “in order to completely surround Ukrainian troops and open the way to Transnistria”, Russian troops will need to be at least tripled.

The military analyst also warns that Russia will need to restore parity with Ukraine on drones in order to start a “decisive battle,” as propagandists describe it, and that Moscow’s military operation faces real risks from Western arms shipments to Ukraine.

According to him, the continuation of the war may begin to work against Russia due to the supply of weapons that Kyiv receives and the greater need for volunteers in the armed forces of the Russian Federation.

PHOTO: ABACA / Abaca Press / Profimedia

Concerns about social unrest in Russia

Among the fears of Russian military experts is that the public’s attitude towards the authorities will change and the Kremlin may not have enough resources for a prolonged war.

Another author of “Military Review” Oleksandr Staver criticized the propaganda of “Slavic brotherhood” between Russia and Ukraine, pointing out that the main goal of the “special military operation” should be the seizure of Donbas, and predicted possible Ukrainian attacks on the Crimean bridge in Simferopol. (the capital of Crimea) and Sevastopol (where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based).

For the first time, Ukrainians attacked the headquarters of the General Staff of the Russian Black Sea Fleet with drones on July 31. As a result of the terrorist attack, which canceled the celebrations for the Day of the Russian Navy, 6 people were injured.

Information gathered by independent analysts confirms fears expressed by Russian military experts. It is clear that Russia lacks the resources for a decisive offensive, so it resorts to systematic bombings with further gradual advance to the east of Ukraine.

In addition, the majority of Russian society tends to passively support the war and is not ready to take a personal part in it. This may also be the reason why the Kremlin prefers the tactics of “invisible” mobilization.

PHOTO: Kommersant photo agency / ddp USA / Profimedia

The Kremlin has backed itself into a corner

At the same time, Putin and those close to him at the moment reject any idea of ​​negotiations with Ukraine. That’s because they let the propaganda they unleashed drive them into a corner.

The accusation that “Ukrainian Nazis” will destroy the Russian population of southeastern Ukraine does not give the Kremlin many opportunities to retreat from the occupied territories.

In the eyes of those who believe in the propaganda of the Russian state, such an exit would look like a betrayal of “Russians who have been waiting for liberation for 8 years”, as some Russian TV channels characterized the occupation of Ukrainian territories.

So far, the Kremlin seems to believe that the easiest way out of the trap it has set for itself is the rapid annexation of the occupied territories to Russia. Vladimir Putin’s advisers probably hope that the annexation of new territories will lead to a revival of patriotic feelings, as happened after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

If this is indeed Putin’s plan, he seems to have shaky grounds for optimism. All this time, Ukrainian counterattacks are increasing, and Kyiv is forming new units in the rear.

If there is no radical paradigm shift, the Russian military leadership really has reasons for concern, concludes the Center for the Analysis of European Politics.

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