It is likely that Russian forces decided to attack Avdiivka frontally from the occupied territory of Donetsk region, instead of waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from defensive positions prepared as a result of Russian encirclement operations northeast of the city, according to an assessment released Tuesday evening. Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Also, unconfirmed information in social networks indicates that Iran could send the first batch of drones to Russia.

A sinkhole in Donetsk after a rocket attackPhoto: Anatoly Stepanov / AFP / Profimedia

The Russian Ministry of Defense is likely trying to silence the outcry that Ukraine’s effective use of HIMARS missiles is causing the Russian military and military bloggers to publish false claims about the destruction of HIMARS launchers.

Information from the latest ISW assessment of the war in Ukraine:

  • Unconfirmed reports on social media suggest that Iran may have sent the first batch of drones to Russia and sent pilots and maintenance for training on the Russian Su-35, suggesting that Iran may try to use recent aviation deals to facilitate purchases of Russian fighters
  • Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensives to the northeast and northwest of the city of Kharkiv.
  • Russian forces launched limited ground attacks northwest of Sloviansk and east of Siversk.
  • Russian troops captured the territory southeast of Bakhmut and continued their offensive to the northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
  • Russian troops are gradually advancing around Avdiivka and continue their attempts to advance to the southwest of Avdiivka.
  • Russian troops have launched two assaults in the north of the Kherson region and are continuing the redeployment of troops to the south.
  • The Russians are forming new volunteer battalions in the Novosibirsk, Saratov, Ulyanovsk and Kurgan regions and are changing the terms of conscription.
  • Ukrainian civilians continue to resist the Russian occupation through acts of civil disobedience and sabotage, while the Kremlin considers long-term methods of population control in occupied Ukraine.

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