The Central Bank will not cut interest rates in the first half of the year, but probably in the second half, if there are no other inflation shocks. Therefore, those who have loans linked to the IRCC and those who want to obtain new loans should take into account the fact that the IRCC will remain at the current level during 2024, says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice President of CFA Romania , invited to the podcast “You and Money”

The indicator will begin to decrease only from 2025, says the economist. “Where does this gap come from? IRCC reacts over two quarters to the movement of interest rates in the money market, so if the NBR cuts interest rates in the second half of next year, we will only have a fall in IRCC for the next two quarters. In other words, by the end of 2024, we will have IRCC as it is now,” Kodirlasu concludes.

We will have a substantial tax increase, but not in 2024

According to Adrian Codirlas, we will have a significant tax increase, but not in 2024, because there are elections, and no one raises taxes during elections. “Probably, this increase in taxes will fall on the shoulders of companies, and they will pay for it, and then they will raise prices so that the consumer pays as well. Direct taxes on the consumer will appear strongly from 2025. They are already talking about raising the single rate or introducing a progressive tax.

After the election, the pressure from the European Commission is likely to be extremely high and action will need to be taken to meet the deficit targets, meaning we will have to somehow return to a sustainable fiscal policy. At the moment, the fiscal policy is completely unstable and, in my opinion, it is even a risk for Romania’s rating,” says the economist.

By the way, Minister of Finance Marcel Bolosh he made no secretfrom the fact that from 2025 tax changes are coming so hard that new taxes from 2024 will even seem easy to us.

Marcel Bolosh, the Minister of Finance, announced that there will be a tax reform from 2025 and that we will “skip the Law on Fiscal-Budgetary Measures”, i.e. Law 296/2023, for which the Çolaku government took responsibility: an avalanche of new taxes from 2024.

“These measures are transitional to the real tax reform, which we will probably have in 2025. Of course, changes in 2024 are out of the question, at least at the moment. Even in 2023,” said Marcel Bolosh.

“Measures from 2025 will be sufficient, as shown by the commitments made through the PNRR. You know, we will pass the Law on Fiscal-Budgetary Measures.”

“The impact of the minimum turnover tax is estimated at almost 5 billion lei. This is an important amount for the state budget and a transitional tax,” explained the Minister of Finance.

What is the reason for the fiscal reform in 2025: new pensions and salaries of state employees

“We rely on fiscal reform, which is an important milestone in 2025. Significant financial resources for the measures of the general pension legislation will come from the new fiscal reform,” Bolos said during a conference organized by CursDeGuvernare.ro.

According to him, it is clear that “the foundation is being laid for significant fiscal reform to support these commitments that we had through both the pension law and the single wage law.”

“These are laws with a permanent impact on the budget, and they require permanent financial resources,” Bolosh said.

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