With less than five months to go before the European Parliament elections, which could upset the balance of political power in the Strasbourg hemisphere, negotiations between the right and certain elements of the extreme right are being carefully analysed, reports AFP.

The election campaign for these elections, scheduled for June 6-9, has not yet officially started, but speculation is swirling around one question: What will happen if the so-called pro-European forces lose their decades-long majority in the Strasbourg Hemisphere?

Because although there is a right-left divide in the European Parliament, they do not prevent the two camps from finding a majority depending on the issue.

However, the strong rise of the far right and nationalists in this election, predicted by several opinion polls, could make these compromises more difficult for the right, centrists and social democrats.

Faced with this risk of mismanagement, will the search for the majority push traditional boundaries, and if so, how far?

Among the “normalization” of the sovereign right, “the tendency of the moderate right to converge with the radical right” is clearly visible, says political scientist Thierry Chopin of the Jacques Delors Institute in an interview with AFP.

On the other hand, the left parties believe that the limits have already been crossed. They mention legislation, particularly environmental legislation, which was blocked by a right-wing vote.

“We will work to make sure that during these elections people are aware of the importance of the stakes, the threat that these right-wing and far-right alliances pose to Europe,” Spanish MEP Irache García Pérez said in Strasbourg. who heads the S&D group, which unites the social democratic left in the European Parliament.

Any future EPP partner must meet three criteria

The head of the right in Strasbourg, the German MEP Manfred Weber denies this.

“We have clearly defined the red lines,” Weber, who heads the European People’s Party (EPP, Christian Democrats), the largest political group, which also includes the French Republicans (LR), told media.

According to him, any future partner of the EPP must meet three criteria:

• be pro-European,
• pro-Ukrainian
• to protect the rule of law”.

It remains to be seen exactly how these criteria will be applied at a time when, as Thierry Chopin notes, sovereign law in Europe is no longer as “anti-European” as it once was.

Against this backdrop, all eyes are on Italy, where Georgia Meloni’s ruling Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party sent nine MEPs to Strasbourg in the previous election and is expected to send more this year, according to opinion polls.

Her party is a member of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group and has proven to be a “good European” according to many observers in Strasbourg, especially after its victory in Italy’s 2022 parliamentary elections, with Mrs Maloney in power.

Could Maloney, who is also clearly pro-Ukrainian, fit Weber’s profile?

A rapprochement between the EPP and part of the ECR group is a “very likely” scenario, according to Teona Lavrelashvili, a European expert at the European Policy Center (EPC) in Brussels.

On the other hand, another part of the sovereign right in Strasbourg, the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which includes French MEPs from the National Union and the League of Italy, is kept at bay.

According to several opinion polls, the ID could rise from fifth to third place in the Strasbourg political group after the June elections, overtaking the Renew Europe group (centrists and liberals).

Asked about the possibility ten days ago, Stéphane Sejournay, then leader of the centrist group and now head of French diplomacy, said he was confident in Renew Europe’s ability to retain third place and remain a “kingmaker” in parliament.