In 2024, the focus will be on elections – not only within the country, but also at the EU level, as well as in the USA and Russia. For the EU, elections are scheduled for early June. Many of the current debates around migration, enlargement or the budget will remain hot topics. The beginning of the year is marked by the beginning of Belgium’s presidency of the Council of the European Union, as well as an extraordinary summit of the European Council. What does each country strive for? European Newsroom provides an extensive answer to this question in an insightful article published this week and cited by Agerpres.

From January 1, Belgium will take over the presidency of the EU Council from Spain for the first half of 2024. This will be the main objective of the national federal government. In the context of reaching political agreement on the Pact on Migration and Asylum and the likely approval by Parliament of the bloc’s budgetary rules, ministers believe that they have a big responsibility in the EU arena. The Belgian presidency should also prepare a debate on future enlargement.

Spain, which is ending its presidency, will start 2024 with a newly formed left-wing government that has been difficult to form. To unblock the government, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez passed an amnesty law for those involved in the Catalan independence process who have outstanding accounts with justice.

This amnesty will set the political agenda for 2024. The European Commission has already announced that it will conduct an audit on compliance with the rule of law. Spain is also grappling with the possible return to the country of former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and the possible protests it could spark.

Choice, choice, choice

From June 6 to 9, citizens of 27 EU countries will come to polling stations and vote in the elections to the European Parliament. Many expect a radical shift to the right in the European Parliament.

In France, the issue of migration risks being at the center of the European election campaign, which will also be a test two years into the start of President Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term. The debate will pit the far-right National Assembly (National Assembly), backed by Marine Le Pen and generally opposed to immigration, against Renaissance, which supports Macron along with several centrist parties. Renaissance had to make concessions to get a more balanced, but still controversial, immigration law passed by parliament on December 20.

Aside from politics, France is hosting the Olympics from July 26 to August 11, and is also considering reopening Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris on December 8.

Spain may face a similar situation: there, the right-wing opposition may try to turn the European elections into the first plebiscite for the newly formed government. The control of illegal migration, the lack of affordable housing, the high level of youth unemployment or the control of the public deficit will be discussed in Spain in 2024.

The election campaign in Slovenia is likely to focus on the issues that are most relevant to citizens: apart from the cost of living and inflation, which is currently one of the highest in the Eurozone, it will certainly include migration, the (non)functioning of the Schengen area, as well as topics such as aid to Ukraine and the EU’s position on the resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.

Photo: roibu / Alamy / Alamy / Profimedia

In addition to the European Parliament elections, the US presidential election on November 5, 2024 will be an important foreign policy event. If Donald Trump is re-elected, there are rumors that US support for Ukraine may be reduced, which will make Russian President Vladimir Putin’s game. It is debatable whether the Europeans can and will provide Ukraine with sufficient long-term support without the US to counter Putin’s expansionist efforts.

In Ukraine, the presidential elections, which were originally planned for the beginning of March, were canceled due to the maintenance of martial law, and the war with Russia is still ongoing. At the beginning of November, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized “that the election is not right now.”

However, presidential elections in Russia will be held in March 2024. Opponents of Putin have repeatedly complained that the election commission refuses to register candidates, citing formal errors, such as the recent case with anti-Kremlin Kateryna Duntsova. Putin is expected to emerge victorious in his fifth run for the presidency. The Russian president specifically changed the constitution in order to run for office again. According to the current version of the constitution, the 71-year-old president of Russia will be able to run for office for the last time in 2030.

Internal elections in Europe in 2024

In addition to the upcoming EU elections, several European countries are also organizing a series of internal elections.

In Spain, regional elections will be held in Galicia, a bastion of the People’s Party (PP), and in the Basque Country, home to parties supporting Prime Minister Sánchez.

In Belgium, citizens will vote in federal and regional elections. In October, citizens will be gathered at polling stations for the second time to vote in local elections.

An unusual election year awaits Romania. In 2024, citizens are expected to vote in four types of elections – presidential, parliamentary, local and European.

And in Slovakia, the year 2024 will be important from the point of view of domestic politics. In the spring, citizens will elect a new head of state in five years.

Austria is urging citizens to go to the polling stations to vote in several state and municipal elections. The country will also elect a new parliament in 2024.

Germany will also face several types of elections, including regional elections that elect state parliaments, as well as elections for district and municipal councils and mayors.

Apart from politics, Germany will host the European Handball and Football Championships in January and July-August respectively.

North Macedonia plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections next year. The presidential election will be held on April 24, and the probable second round of voting is expected to take place simultaneously with the parliamentary election, on May 8.

The green light for EU enlargement means internal restructuring

Countries with the status of candidates strive to continue to pave the way for accession.

In North Macedonia, for example, efforts include constitutional changes to include minorities in the preamble. The country also seeks reforms related to the rule of law, public administration or the protection of members of minorities. During the EU Council summit in December, it was concluded that the EU is ready to complete the initial stage of accession negotiations with this country as soon as the commitment to adopt constitutional amendments is fulfilled. However, while this amendment remains blocked in parliament, possible changes are expected only after the elections.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which received the status of a candidate country a year ago, leaves 2023 with a conditional green light to start negotiations, when the necessary level of compliance with the accession criteria is achieved. The Commission will submit a report on this matter to the Council of the EU by March 2024. In order to negotiate, the country must pass early next year reform laws that strengthen the fight against corruption, create legal certainty and provide arguments to demonstrate that the country is making progress on 14 key priorities.

Photo: Olivier Matthys/AP/Profimedia

On the other hand, European leaders appealed to the authorities of the Republika Srpska with a request to withdraw the disputed laws, which will lead to regression of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of basic freedoms. The problems are caused by a law that criminalizes defamation, a law on “foreign agents” that provides special oversight of non-governmental organizations funded from abroad, and a law that the decisions of the high representative will not be enforced in that institution.

Next year, Albania expects to open negotiations on the first group of chapters. In December, the country completed the process of reviewing the harmonization of legislation with the European Union, as the first stage of negotiations, which were opened in July 2022. Prime Minister Edi Rama believes that the rapid progress towards EU accession is an unavoidable challenge, stressing that Albania currently has more than 50% of the potential to be considered ready to join the European Union. While he praised the work done by the Albanian negotiators, he emphasized that “we are still at the beginning of the process.”

Entry into the euro zone and Schengen

Romania hopes to resolve the Schengen file next year after failing to meet that target in 2023 as Austria did not change its position after a veto in 2022. After the Justice and Home Affairs Council (JAI) in early December, Romanian officials announced that Austria had softened its position and agreed that Romania should join the Schengen area for air transport.

Bulgaria’s initial plan was to join the eurozone in 2024. However, in February 2023, the then interim finance minister, Rosita Velkova, stated that the country had not met all of its obligations when entering the EU’s Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). ) and the inflation criterion, so he moved the target entry date to January 1, 2025.

Bulgaria has adopted an action plan for the transition from the Bulgarian Lev. The steering committee, in which Eurosceptics play a key role, gathered enough votes to support a referendum petition asking Bulgarians to support keeping the leva as the sole legal currency until 2043. The number of votes that supported the initiative made a referendum inevitable, but at the beginning of July 2023 the parliament rejected it, citing the wording of the question as unconstitutional. The nationalist and far-right party “Revival” referred the case to the Constitutional Court, where the case is still under consideration.