There has been much talk of a 1.5°C global average temperature increase target and that this could be exceeded by 2030. However, more and more researchers say that this year will be the warmest year if we measure the weather a year after that. year, it will be the warmest, and under these conditions the average value of 1.5 C will be exceeded much faster than previously thought.

Several climate scientists say there is a debate at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, where different regions have different targets, the idea of ​​a 1.5C target should be changed. The idea is to recognize that we will exceed this level, rather than saying that we must do everything possible not to exceed it.

We have to come to terms with the idea that in a few years we will definitely exceed that 1.5 C level, but the measures we should insist on are those that will allow us to get back below 1.5 C after some time and then let’s continue to fall.

The first mentions of a 1.5C temperature increase came in 2009 at the COP15 summit then held in Copenhagen, but these were still tentative mentions and the scientific evidence surrounding this increase and its impact on Earth was still being collected . It was too early for a consensus.

Thanks to the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, governments agreed to keep the rise in global average temperatures well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The IPCC report showed that there is a high probability that we exceed the threshold of 1.5°C in 2030. The 1.5°C target is for the whole world

At the end of last week, researchers from the Met Office (UK) calculated that this discussed level could be exceeded as early as 2024, which is a serious indicator and shows that the Earth is warming faster than we expect.

Obviously, there will be fluctuations, and 1.5 C above average in 2024 or 2025 does not mean we will stay above that level year after year. But several climate scientists say the message is this: It would be unrealistic to believe that humanity can stay below 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels for many years.

The World Meteorological Organization said 2023 would certainly be the warmest year on record, averaging 1.3C above pre-industrial levels. This year will surpass the last two very warm years: 2016 and 2020.

The Met Office estimates that 2024 could be 1.34-1.58C warmer globally than 1850-1900.

In the spring of 2023, a number of climatologists estimated that this year had a chance to be in the top 5 warmest years, but after a series of exceptional months, especially July, it appeared that 2023 will definitely be the warmest year on record. . For the period January to October 2023, global temperatures rose by 1.40 C over the second half of the 19th century, well above Met Office estimates at the end of last year (range 1.08-1.32 C, with an average of 1.20 C).

The Met Office notes that over the past 11 years, the average global temperature has always been more than 1.0C above pre-industrial levels, and each decade adds an average of 0.2C, which doesn’t seem like much, but it’s not. .

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