Annual inflation slowed to 8.1% in October, but services and food prices continued to rise, data from the National Institute of Statistics showed on Monday.

Air tickets (about 26%), detergents (24%) and thermal energy (over 22%) rose in price the most. According to Statistics, water and hygiene products are next in price increase in October.

At the opposite pole, oil, flour and bread became cheaper, most likely due to the ceiling introduced by the Government. After the “anesthesia” (ceiling) is lifted, price growth in these segments is not excluded.

Even if inflation has fallen, the population doesn’t feel it until most of the daily shopping basket shows rising prices. The prices of milk, bread, coffee, eggs and meat – products that are often used in households – were constantly rising.

“We confirm our year-end inflation forecast of 7.5% for 2023, but expect slightly higher inflationary pressure next year,” Erste Bank’s research department said in a report to investors.

We estimate headline inflation to peak again at around 8.0% in January-February 2024 amid the announced changes to tobacco excise duties and the effect of lifting the cap on commercial food additives. Analysis Department of Erste Bank.

Economists say short-term inflation forecasts will have little impact on recently introduced excise duties on sugary soft drinks and an increase in the VAT rate from 5% to 9% on organic food. Assuming a full and immediate impact on final prices, they could have an impact of 0.1 percentage point on annual inflation.

Inflation has been a key theme over the past two years globally due to geopolitical tensions and is likely to remain so for the next two years.

“We confirm our year-end inflation forecast of 7.5% for 2023, but expect slightly higher inflationary pressures next year.