The problems of the Russian army in Ukraine are not only human and material losses, it will also face, among other things, what RAND analyst Dara Massicot already describes as the “Ukrainian syndrome”, a time bomb that the military leadership from Moscow is trying to hide it’s under the rug.

Massicot explains this in an article published by The Economist and an analysis he shared on his page Twitter that the current personnel policy of the Russian army masks its ability to retain servicemen on active duty.

In other words, even in peacetime, no army in the world wants its soldiers to voluntarily leave the military career due to insufficient motivation, after they have spent considerable time and resources on their training.

But Russia lost most of its professional soldiers in the first months of the war, and since last September, when Putin issued a partial mobilization decree, all Russian servicemen have been forced into active duty either through indefinite contract extensions or through incorporation as a result of the decree , signed by the President of Russia.

Possible exceptions are to some extent Wagner’s mercenaries and the military of the Rosgvardiya, Russia’s National Guard, which enjoys a privileged status of being under the direct command, at least nominally, of Putin.

Russian soldiers are kept at the front longer than necessary

Currently, the only ways for Russian servicemen to leave the armed forces (except for death in Ukraine) are to reach the mandatory retirement age, to be discharged on health grounds, or to be detained for refusing to fight.

The number of escapes to Ukraine is also increasing, as Russian soldiers are not regularly sent to the front, and in many cases they are not even allowed to rest.

They experience prolonged combat stress, which increases their feelings of helplessness and anger at the situation in which they find themselves.

Messages on Russian Telegram channels indicate that many of them want to resign after the end of the war. Of course, there will be those who want to remain in active service, needing money or other benefits that the Russian government offers to military personnel, for example, free housing.

“Ukrainian syndrome”, after “Afghan syndrome” and “Chechen syndrome”

In addition, there is the problem of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Dara Masikot points out that just as there was a so-called “Afghan syndrome” or “Chechen syndrome” to describe veterans with severe PTSD who had serious difficulty adjusting to civilian life, the “Ukrainian syndrome” is only a matter of time. will appear in Russia.

But for now, most of the fighters remain at the front. Even now, 15 months after the start of the “special operation”, Russia’s medical system is overwhelmed by the need to treat servicemen with physical or psychological injuries.

There are simply not enough psychiatric hospitals and other medical facilities for veterans in Russia. Some Russian soldiers are discharged without treatment for severe post-traumatic stress disorder or sent to other medical facilities where there are no trained personnel to help them.

There were many descriptions of this situation in the Russian independent investigative press, which practically legally left the country to avoid total Kremlin censorship. For example, in an article published in March of this year, journalists from Jellyfish they reported how in some cases mothers of Russian soldiers come to medical facilities to take care of their sons.

Other soldiers buy alcohol from nearby shops and drink to sleep.

The problem of veterans in Ukraine, a “time bomb” for Russia

Some Russian doctors estimate that 20 to 25 percent of veterans returning from the Ukrainian front will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, and 100,000 men will need special care.

The Kremlin has already created a special fund “Defenders of the Fatherland Fund” to create regional centers to help veterans. It is still very new, and it remains to be seen how effective it will be given the massive corruption in the Russian military.

And the problem facing Russia now is just as big: 97% of its ground forces and airborne forces are in Ukraine. The situation is very different from Russia’s previous wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya.

However, one aspect has changed in favor of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. When veterans from Afghanistan and Chechnya returned home, people with severe PTSD had difficulties with employment, family life, health problems, and some turned to crime.

The Russian population generally shunned them, further isolating them. However, now Russian propaganda is trying to present the Russian military in Ukraine as “liberators” and compares them to the heroes who defeated Nazism in the “Great Patriotic War”. Therefore, after returning home, they may have a slightly better fate.

However, Dara Massicot notes that whatever the situation, Russia will face a “ticking time bomb” regarding veterans returning home with mental health issues.

She reminds that this will be a problem that Ukraine will also face, both from the point of view of its military and civilians traumatized by the horrors of war. “They were captured, and they urgently need support,” she says about the Ukrainians.

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