Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces his toughest political challenge in Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary elections, which the opposition sees as his best chance to end his two decades in power and change policies, Reuters and news.ro reported.

Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14, with a possible second round of voting on May 28, will decide not only who leads Turkey, but also how it is governed, where the economy is headed and the shape of its foreign policy.

Erdogan, modern Turkey’s longest-serving leader, has promoted religiosity and low interest rates for households while asserting Turkey’s influence in the region and weakening the NATO member’s ties to the West.

The election comes three months after earthquakes in southeastern Turkey killed more than 50,000 people.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main opponent is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which is backed by an alliance of six opposition parties.

BETTING ON TURKEY

The most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the modern Turkish republic a century ago, Erdogan and his Islamist Justice and Development Party (AK) have distanced Turkey from Atatürk’s secular project.

Erdogan has also concentrated power around the executive branch, housed in a 1,000-room palace on the outskirts of Ankara, which determines Turkey’s economic, security, domestic and international policies.

Erdogan’s critics say his government has stifled dissent, violated rights and subjugated the judiciary. The charge is denied by officials, who say the government has protected citizens from security threats, including a 2016 coup attempt.

Economists say Erdogan’s calls for low interest rates pushed inflation to a 24-year high of 85% last year and the lira has fallen to a tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade.

BETTING ON THE REST OF THE WORLD

Under Erdogan, Turkey has strengthened its military power in the Middle East and beyond, launching four incursions into Syria, launching an offensive against Kurdish militants in Iraq and sending military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.

Turkey also had a series of diplomatic clashes with regional powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, as well as confrontations with Greece and Cyprus over maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean, until it reversed course last year. For two years, he was looking for rapprochement with some of his rivals.

Erdogan’s purchase of Russian air defense systems has prompted US sanctions against Ankara, and his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin has led critics to question Turkey’s commitment to the western military alliance NATO. Ankara’s objections to Sweden’s and Finland’s bids for NATO membership have also caused tension.

However, Turkey brokered a deal to export Ukrainian wheat to the Black Sea, underscoring Erdogan’s potential role in trying to end the war in Ukraine. It is unclear whether a possible successor will have the same profile he has built on the world stage.

WHAT DOES THE OPPOSITION PROMISE?

The two main opposition parties, the secularist CHP and the center-right nationalist IYI party, have joined forces with four smaller parties in a platform that would overturn many of Erdogan’s traditional policies.

They promised to restore the independence of the central bank and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. It would also remove the president’s executive powers in favor of the previous parliamentary system and send back Syrian refugees.

Erdogan’s opponents are seeking to improve relations with Western allies, including the United States, and get Turkey back into the F-35 fighter jet program, which it was locked out of after buying Russian missile defense systems.

Analysts believe that the policy promised by the opposition can stimulate foreign investment.

Erdogan has backed a failed effort to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while hosting at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees, who have become increasingly undesirable amid Turkey’s economic woes.

The opposition supported Erdogan’s plans to deport some refugees to Syria, but none of them explained how this could be done safely.

HOW HANGING IS THE RACE?

The latest polls show Kilicdaroglu ahead of Erdogan, whose popularity has been hit by a cost-of-living crisis fueled by rampant inflation. The single image of the opposition increased its chances, analysts believe.

But Erdogan is still running, and the presidential race could come down to a runoff between him and Kilicdaroglu.

Initial polls after the Feb. 6 earthquake showed Erdogan had managed to retain much of his support despite accusations that the government was slow to respond and failed to enforce building codes that could have saved lives.

What remains important is how the opposition will gain support among Kurdish voters, who make up 15% of the electorate.

The pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance, but has been fiercely opposed to Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years.