Our planet’s population is growing and will continue to grow, reaching some 10 billion by the end of the 21st century under the United Nations’ intermediate scenario. However, based on the same scenario, the population of Europe will not only not increase, but, on the contrary, will decrease in the coming decades, as a result of which, if in 1950 it was 22% of the world’s population, today it is 9.5%. will decrease to 7.3% in 2050, while the population of Greece will also decrease (probably by 1.3 million, i.e. by 12% compared to today).

The above applies to the latest issue (45o) of the Demographic News series “Greek Population on the Horizon 2050”, an e-bulletin of the University’s Demographic and Social Analysis Laboratory. Thessaly, in which the authors (Professor Byron Kotzamanis and PhD student Georgios Kontogiannis) present the Greek population outlook based on recent (2022) United Nations forecast scenarios.

In particular, as they report, the population of Greece will continue to decline until 2050, while only the age group of 65 years and older will increase (+800 thousand people compared to today, from 2.4 to 3.15 million in 2050). ). Conversely, the population aged 0-19 and the working-age population will decline, bringing the number of persons aged 20-64 (6.03 million in 2022) to less than 4.5 million in 2050. Of – due to aging and despite the fact that life expectancy will increase, mortality is not expected to decrease, fluctuating in all scenarios in the region of 125-130 thousand per year by 2050, which significantly exceeds the birth rate. In particular, even with an increase in the intensity of the birth rate (i.e. if younger couples have more children than their parents), the birth rate under the “intermediate” scenario will fluctuate annually in the region of 75 thousand (much less than the 89 thousand on average, that we had). in the decade 2012-2021) and in the “high” – a very unlikely scenario – about 98 thousand (slightly more). Consequently, they find that the natural balance (scale, i.e. birth rate – death rate) will be negative for all subsequent years up to 2050, although it is differentiated according to the scenario.

This will inevitably lead to a reduction in the population, since the small positive projected balance of immigration in all UN forecast scenarios for Greece (+140 thousand for the period 2022-2049) cannot compensate for the extremely negative balance of births – deaths. The expected lower number of births in the next few decades compared to the period 2012-2021 is due, according to the researchers, to two main factors:

j) in reducing the number of women of childbearing age and

ii) the low birth rate of young couples, i.e. the limited number of children they have in the world (average 1.55 children per woman). “Recovery” of the birth rate in the coming decades with the creation of a particularly favorable environment, if and until it is achieved, will lead much later – and certainly not earlier than 2050 – on the one hand, to stop the decline in the number of women aged 25-44, on the one hand on the other hand, to a stabilization of the birth rate of about 100 thousand (and, accordingly, to a relatively more balanced physical balance).

Therefore, it is expected that policies aimed at achieving this goal will have an effect not in the short term, but in the medium term. More broadly, any negative effects of the demographic changes of the previous decades in the near future can be partly mitigated if, in addition to the increase in the birth rate, the migration of our youth is soon stopped and the balance of entry-exit becomes strongly positive (very more positive, than accepted in UN forecasts). Speaking to the Athens Macedonian News Agency, Mr. Kotzamanis emphasizes that “just as population projections are generalizations with relatively little uncertainty, when we talk about the short and medium term (see 2050), we can now delineate areas Therefore, planners and decision-makers at the national and regional levels must take for granted some irreversible demographic trends in the coming decades, assess their consequences and take appropriate measures now for their long-term reversal. adaptation to the expected “demographic” changes and active actions should replace passivity and a wait-and-see attitude.”

Source: RES-IPE