OUR climatic Migration will inevitably become one of the most important manifestations of the climate crisis on the planet, causing side effects due to massive population movements.

According to the most recent UNHCR data, since 2008, an average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced each year due to weather-related hazards (such as floods, hurricanes, fires, extreme temperatures).

The World Bank estimates that climate change could force more than 200 million people out of their homes over the next three decades unless urgent action is taken to reduce global emissions.

Legal status

With this data, the international community is trying to prepare for waves of mass migration due to the effects of climate change. At the moment, those who are forced to move due to the effects of climate change they are not protected by international law or the domestic policies of most host countries.

However, it is noted that while no country offers asylum to climate migrants, UNHCR published legal advice in October 2020, “opening the door” to ensure the protection of people displaced by the effects of global warming, noting that climate change should be considered in some scenarios when it intersects with violence.

More and more countries are laying the groundwork for creating safe havens for climate migrants. For example, last May Argentina has introduced a special three-year “humanitarian visa” for people from Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean displaced by natural disasters.

At the same time, in the United States, which lacks a federal framework to deal with climate change-driven displacement, nationality-specific provisions are sometimes introduced for immigrants who wish to stay in the US due to an environmental disaster in their home country. However, these options are temporary and only apply to people who are already in the US.

Louisiana flood victims

“I feel like I’m being separated from where I belong. I really don’t like it.” In the summer of 2022, Chris Brunet made the difficult decision to leave his home on Jean Charles Island in Louisiana. Chris is from the Choctaw Nation who has lived in the area for almost 200 years. He and his family participated in a supervised resettlement program for “vulnerable populations”.

It is about permanently removing people from vulnerable areas, either preemptively or, more often, after a natural disaster. An example of this program was New Orleans, as Hurricane Katrina devastated the city in 2005.

In 1950, the island was half the size of Washington. It is now half the size of Washington’s National Mall, and about a dozen residences remain. Between 1992 and 2021, there are 15 hurricanes and two floods that the federal government says caused severe damage to the island. This makes it one of the most affected areas in the state.

Difficult process

Six years later, the ongoing move shows just how challenging this task is. The tribal leaders claim that this process deprived them of their basic rights. While the process of relocating families to a new location is underway, the tribal council is working on another plan for relocation and reunification – this time without the help of the government.

“Moving is a messy, complicated and controversial process.” This is reported by Nicholas Pinder, associate director of the Center for Watershed Science at the University of California, Davis. He himself studied 50 migrations that took place from 1882 to the present. Monly four he considered “undeniable” successes, where communities not only moved to new locations, but prospered.. They were all in the Midwestern states, and none of them dealt with marginalized groups or the threat of climate change. They had strong local leaders who managed to keep their communities together.

Case of Kiribati

Kiribati, an archipelago of 33 islands in the central Pacific just above sea level, is one of the first countries in the world to be threatened by rising sea levels. Some of its islands are already uninhabited. The 32 atolls that make up the Kiribati archipelago are located on the equator and close to the International Date Line.

As many of the islets are only a few meters above sea level, sea levels are beginning to be felt due to global warming. According to the President of the country, there are already more cases when sea water invades the islands and fills the groundwater with salt.

According to some estimates, the level of the Pacific Ocean is rising by about two thousand a year, and in the coming decades the rate will accelerate. The models used by climatologists are not consistent with the course of the phenomenon. Rise estimates by the end of the century range from a few centimeters to almost a metre.

New capital of Indonesia

Jakarta is facing enormous climate pressure due to rising sea levels. In some areas, the city is sinking at a rate of 28 cm per year. Devastating floods have forced thousands of Jakarta residents to flee their homes, many of whom have been forced to leave some coastal villages. As the climate crisis worsens, the situation is expected to become even more critical for coastal residents.

President Sukarno proposed moving the capital to Palangaraju, a city in the middle of the Indonesian archipelago, in 1957. However, his idea was never realized. Then, under the Soharto administration in the 1990s, there was a proposal to move the capital to Chongol. Again, this plan did not materialize. During the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004–2014), the proposal was revived as a possible solution to traffic congestion and flooding in Jakarta. But it was not until April 29, 2019 that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) finally took the plunge and approved a plan to move the central government out of Java.

Source: The Economist, Center for Public Integrity, DW, Reuters.