As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its second year, all eyes are on the small war-torn town of Bakhmut. There, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, one of the fiercest and bloodiest battles of the war is currently taking place, as Russia seeks its first major battlefield victory since capturing the eastern cities of Severodonetsk and Lysiyansk in the summer.

This months-long battle for Bakhmut has resulted in the death of hundreds of Ukrainians and Russians each day, according to some estimates, and the destruction of the town of Bakhmut, with the city’s mayor saying that not a single building has been left untouched by shells and rockets. .

Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine reflects Vladimir Putin’s long-held goal of seizing Ukraine’s eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known as Donbass — a key goal that Russian forces must achieve by March, according to Ukrainian officials.

Bakhmutul, a small town of little strategic importance

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this small town was home to a salt industry, a non-ferrous metal factory, a winery and over 70,000 people. Although it got its name from the Bakhmutivka River, during the Soviet period it was renamed Artemivsk, which it remained until 2016, when its original name was restored as part of efforts to “de-Sovietize” Ukraine, according to Time.

For the residents of Bakhmut, the time on the front line did not begin in 2022, but in 2014, when hostilities began between Ukraine and Russian separatists in Donbas. Today, less than 1% of Bakhmut’s pre-war population remains in the city, living without electricity, water and heating.

Today’s Verdun! Why then is Russia fighting so much with Ukraine for Bakhmut?

If Moscow’s goal was to capture Donetsk and Luhansk before spring, the capture of Bakhmut was an important stage in its advance to the east.

Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the US Center for Naval Analyses, tells Time magazine that Bakhmut is the “gateway” to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which have recently come under Russian missile attacks.

Ukrainian military near Bakhmut Photo: ARIS MESSINIS / AFP / Profimedia

Such a result is not necessarily inevitable, let alone probable. Ukrainian and Russian forces have been fighting in the Bakhmut area since at least May. This long battle of attrition became extremely important as a theater of war, especially as troops and resources began to flock to the small town.

Bakhmut “has become this rallying cry in the Russian information space,” Carolina Hird, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., told Time, noting that the small town is one of the few places where its forces achieved tangible gains. For Ukrainians, “Bakhmut stood” became a national battle cry.

• Read also: Why the Battle of Bakhmut is remarkably similar to the Battle of Verdun

The city is surrounded by Russian troops / Kyiv, however, says it will send additional troops

Russian troops have advanced in their goal to completely surround Bakhmut, and Ukrainian troops defending the city have only one supply road left, EFE notes.

Despite the fact that this road is within the range of Russian fire, Kyiv has assured that it can continue to use it, even announcing the introduction of additional troops to the area.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank in Washington, said last week that Kyiv’s actions could signal an imminent retreat from part of the city. Ukrainian troops can carry out a “limited and controlled withdrawal from particularly difficult areas in eastern Bakhmut”, while trying to block the movement of Russia and limit the exit routes to the west, reports ISW, which is quoted by “Ukrainian Pravda”.

Should Bakhmut be protected at all costs? There is no unanimous opinion among Ukrainians

Disputes broke out between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his chief general Valery Zaluzhny, chief of the General Staff in Kyiv, in connection with the withdrawal of troops from the city of Bakhmut, writes Bild with reference to sources in the political leadership of Ukraine. .

According to the sources of the German newspaper, Zaluzhny a few weeks ago recommended the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from this city in the Donetsk region, which Russia has been trying to seize since the beginning of August last year.

But the Ukrainian political leadership would perceive this city as a symbol of resistance to the invading troops, because thousands of mercenaries of Wagner’s group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, died here.

Another Ukrainian military adviser told Bild that “in the beginning Bakhmut was a trap for the Russians, now it has become a trap for us.”

“We kill them in a ratio of 1:7 (for every Ukrainian killed, seven Russians die), this is the only military reason to keep Bakhmut. But the troops should have withdrawn three weeks ago, when the Russians took Krasna Gora,” he added.

According to NATO intelligence estimates, for every Ukrainian soldier killed in the battles for the defense of the city of Bakhmut, Russian forces lost at least five, a NATO military representative told CNN on Monday.

Bild published this article on the same day that Ukrainian media reported that Ukrainian soldiers from Bakhmut feel abandoned by the army leadership.

General Valery Zaluzhny Photo: President of Ukraine / Zuma Press / Profimedia

What happens if Bakhmut falls?

The fall of Bakhmut would be a modest tactical victory for Russia. But it will also be Pirus, given all the resources used. Indeed, Western officials estimate that the number of Russian troops killed or wounded in the war is approaching 200,000, down from an estimate of just 80,000 in August.

“In recent months, the Russians had to use enormous resources and reserves to conquer Bakhmut,” says MP Cherniev. “From that point of view, our plan was a success.”

Russian troops are forced to engage in “hand-to-hand combat” in Ukraine, possibly due to a lack of ammunition, the latest figures show, while conscripts are forced to fight with infantry shovels, which are also used to dig trenches.

In addition, Prigozhin said that Russian front lines near Bakhmut could collapse if his forces did not receive the ammunition promised by the Kremlin in February. “For now, we are trying to find out what the reason is: it is a simple delay or a betrayal,” the Wagner leader said on Sunday.

Although the loss of Bakhmut would cause symbolic damage to Ukraine, which does not want to cede any territory to Russia, it would not have a significant impact on Kyiv’s military efforts.

Even if the Russian troops moved further to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, they would encounter another, even more fortified, Ukrainian defense.

It took eight months for Russian troops to advance from the occupied Popasnaya Luhansk region to their current position in Bakhmut, a distance of about 30 kilometers. When the journey from Bakhmut to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk takes about 30 minutes, only one outcome is guaranteed: “Months, months, months, months and months of agony, exhaustion,” say analysts quoted by the Times.

Ukrainian military personnel in a settlement near the city of Bakhmut Photo: Kuba / Zuma Press / Profimedia Images

“I think it has more symbolic value than strategic and operational value,” Reuters quoted US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as saying on Monday, adding that he would refrain from predicting if and when Bakhmut might be captured by the forces. Russian

“The fall of (the city of) Bakhmut does not necessarily mean that the Russians will change the course of this struggle,” the American defense minister insisted.

Russia’s offensive is slowing down – expert

Meanwhile, Ukrainian military expert Serhii Grabskyi told EFE on Monday that the Russian offensive on the city of Bakhmut shows signs of slowing and that the assault may have reached “maximum” intensity without Kremlin forces taking control of the city.

“We saw some signs that the Russians had to slow down their operations because of a lack of personnel and ammunition,” said Grabsky, a reserve colonel who served in peacekeeping missions in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia.

The ex-serviceman is referring to a video released by the head of Wagner’s mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in which he again complains about the lack of ammunition and warns that if his private army withdraws from Bakhmut, “the whole front will collapse.”

According to Grabsky, this is the first time that Prigozhin, whose mercenaries are leading the assault on Bakhmut, has spoken about the possibility of a retreat, which he says confirms the thesis that Russia no longer has the strength to continue its offensive on the city of Donbass.

Sources: Bild, HotNews.ro, Time, EFE