Research – analysis: prof. Giannis Maniatis
With the assistance of PhD students: I. Voulgari, A. Manoli, M. Hatzigeorgiadis

Additional income of $2.5 trillion earned in 2022, compared to AD of $1.5 trillion per year compared to previous years, oil and gas companies, mainly from European households and businesses. 58% of world income comes from state-owned companies of authoritarian regimes (Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, etc.), 28% – from small and medium-sized independent companies, and the remaining 14% – from large companies (ExxonMobil, Total, BP, etc.). .).).

Falling natural gas prices

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the cessation of supplies via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, the price of natural gas in August 2022 exceeded 300 euros/MWh, which is ten times higher than before the summer of 2021!
However, since January 2023, there has been a constant drop in the price, reaching around 50 EUR/MWh.

Ambitious goals of renewable energy companies

The largest “Western” energy and oil producers have set themselves ambitious targets for renewable energy. The strategy of transforming large oil companies into energy companies with a significant contribution of renewable energy is obvious. In first place is the Italian Enel with a renewable energy capacity of about 40 gigawatts, and by 2030 it is planned to increase them to 150.

World electricity consumption

Over the past 35 years, global electricity consumption has tripled, with China by far the largest consumer with a 33% share (2025), more than the US and European Union combined. Over 70% of demand growth by 2025 will come from China, India and Southeast Asia.

Growing demand for oil in China

While in 2022 in China, due to the policy of zero cases of COVID-19, the increase in oil demand was zero, then in 2023 it is expected that the increase will be an additional 3.5 million barrels per day, almost the same as the increase will be shown by the rest of the planet. In Europe, on the contrary, a decline in demand for oil is expected.

Energy forecasts up to 2050

Global energy demand will peak by 2050 in all three possible emission reduction scenarios (-75%, -95%, current trajectory), despite accelerating savings. There is a significant increase in electricity, a sharp decrease in carbon, an interesting presence of hydrogen. At today’s exchange rate, natural gas is expected to rise and oil to decline.