As Russia launches a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, the US and its allies are skeptical that Moscow has amassed enough troops and resources to make significant gains, US, UK and Ukrainian officials told CNN. At the same time, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine has a “very good chance” to take the initiative on the battlefield, Reuters reports.

“I think they’re going to have a very good chance of making some pretty significant changes on the battlefield and implementing the initiative. And they will be able to use this initiative in the future,” Lloyd Austin told reporters after a meeting with NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

He also said that for every system that NATO provides, it will train troops on that system. “We’re focused on providing the capability, not just the platform,” he said.

This comes as Britain and other European countries will provide Ukraine with military equipment, including spare parts for tanks and artillery shells, through an international fund, London announced on Wednesday.

The United Kingdom has agreed with the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Lithuania to send an initial support package to Ukraine with an estimated cost of more than 200 million pounds ($241 million), the British Ministry of Defense said.

“This package of equipment will provide a significant increase in the capability of the armed forces of Ukraine and support their ability to defend their country,” Defense Secretary Wallace said after a meeting with his NATO counterparts in Brussels.

A new Russian offensive in the east of Ukraine is “rather desirable than realistic”

Russia has increased the number of forces deployed on its border and in Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine, some thanks to a partial mobilization ordered last September. Despite the increase in numbers, the Western Allies saw no evidence of sufficient change in the ability of these forces to conduct the operations necessary to capture and hold new territory.

The U.S. and its allies are skeptical that Moscow has assembled the manpower and resources to make significant gains, U.S., U.K. and Ukrainian officials told CNN. “It’s probably more wishful thinking than realistic,” said a senior US military official.

“The Russian forces are unlikely to be particularly better organized and equally unlikely to succeed, although they seem keen to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.

The Russian army attacks, not being ready, under pressure from the Kremlin

The U.S. military estimated it would take until May for the Russian military to regain enough strength for a sustained offensive, but Russian leaders wanted to act sooner. The U.S. now believes Russian troops are likely to move sooner than they are ready because of political pressure from the Kremlin, a senior U.S. military official told CNN.

Despite Ukrainian officials sounding the alarm about new Russian attacks in the East, Ukrainians are also skeptical of Russia’s capabilities as they stand.

“They gathered enough manpower to take one or two small towns in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. “Disappointment compared to the sense of panic they tried to create in Ukraine.”

In addition, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday in Brussels that the US does not see an increase in the number of aircraft by Russia, as before the air operation against Ukraine.

“As for whether Russia is massing its planes for a massive airstrike, we don’t see that at the moment. We know that Russia has a significant number of aircraft in its inventory and many remaining capabilities,” he said. “That’s why I emphasized that we should do everything possible so that Ukraine gets as many air defense capabilities as possible.”

Problems of the Russian military industry

An assessment by the British Ministry of Defense on Wednesday morning highlights the problems of the Russian military industry:

• “Vice President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmytro Medvedev last Thursday, during a visit to the Omsk Automobile Plant, called for an increase in the production of tanks in Russia. The request came as a result of several public statements by President Putin, who called on the defense industry to better support “special military operations.” During a televised meeting on January 12, 2023, Putin berated Denis Manturov, the deputy prime minister responsible for industry. defense because he was “joking”; it was one of the president’s most brutal public outbursts since the invasion began.
• Senior Russian leaders are likely aware that the country’s military-industrial complex is becoming a critical weakness, exacerbated by the strategic and operational error of the invasion of Ukraine.

In addition, according to Ruslan Pukhov, a military expert and director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, the Abrams tanks that the US military will supply to Ukraine are much better than any tanks that Russia has.

We also see the same desperate messages of Russian soldiers appearing on social networks that they are sent to the front and do not have equipment.

Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tetyana Moskalkova on Monday appealed to the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov to investigate reports that conscripts from Tatarstan were being sent to fight in Ukraine “virtually without weapons.”