As Russia approaches the one-year anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv is issuing an increasingly urgent warning: Vladimir Putin is preparing a major new offensive, has amassed significant forces, and an attack is imminent in the coming weeks, NBC News reports.

Ukrainian officials say the Russian military is regrouping and preparing an imminent attack aimed at turning the tide of the war in Moscow’s favor, bolstered by hundreds of thousands of conscripts mobilized last fall.

“We have to understand that the threat of a new offensive will remain until we defeat Russia,” senior Ukrainian Defense Ministry official Yuri Sak said in an interview with NBC News on Thursday.

A spring offensive has long been predicted by Western officials and analysts, and the Kremlin has been eager to seize the initiative after a difficult winter that was preceded by months of setbacks on the battlefield and criticism at home. But leaders in Kyiv now say that Russia has amassed large forces ready to attack soon, by the February 24 anniversary.

RUSSIA IS PREPARING FOR AN ATTACK WITH HALF A MILLION ARMY

In an interview with French media on Wednesday, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Russia has 500,000 troops ready to go on the offensive in the coming weeks, nearly double the number Putin announced he would mobilize in September.

“Officially, 300,000 were announced, but when we see the troops at the borders, we estimate that it is much more,” he said.

Ukrainian officials have already issued warnings, but the minister’s comments are the most detailed description of what Kyiv considers an immediate threat.

WHERE COULD THE ATTACK COME FROM?

Reznikov, who was in Paris to press the French government for the weapons, said Russia would likely attack either from the east or the south.

In the east, the Ukrainian command is faced with a dramatic choice: withdraw from the city of Bakhmut or hold their positions, despite significant losses and the growing risk of the encirclement. The battles here became fierce and acquired not only symbolic, but also strategic significance.

“Since their main forces are concentrated in the east, we expect them to launch an offensive there, possibly around Bakhmut,” Sack said.

In the south, Russian troops are deployed along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and not far from the most important city of Kherson. The regional capital was the first major city captured by Russian forces at the start of the war, but in November they were forced to retreat in embarrassment to more defensible positions across the river.

AMERICAN LEADERS TALK TO KYIV

Zelenskyi’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said on Thursday that he had informed US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, about the threat of a new offensive.

“There was an exchange of views regarding the possible actions of the enemy in the near future,” Yermak said on Twitter.

A few weeks before the Russian invasion a year ago, the US declassified and released information that showed the scale of Putin’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders. So far, the United States has not released information about a possible new offensive, NBC News notes.

THE ATTACK FROM BELARUS APPEARS TO BE LOW

Russia’s military plans are a closely guarded secret. Instead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Thursday that his diplomats would try to rival and overshadow public pro-Ukraine events in Western cities to mark the year since the war began.

“Our diplomats will do everything possible to ensure that any chaos planned for the anniversary of a special military operation in late February in New York and elsewhere – which the West is now actively planning with the Kyiv regime – is not the only event that would attract the attention of the international community Lavrov said.

A consensus has emerged among the various scenarios for a Russian attack: however, it seems unlikely that Russia will attack from Belarus and make another attempt to capture Kyiv.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, said earlier this week that “an imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action,” but in its latest daily briefing it said “that a Russian invasion from Belarus is extremely unlikely.”

LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE IN KYIV

The increasingly remote threat to Kyiv allowed a cautious calm to reign in the capital.

The city is still a regular target of Russian missiles, which means air defense systems are inconspicuously located near government buildings in the city center. And in many areas, electricity is still out, because the power grid targeted by the Moscow army has not been fully restored.

But the tension is far from the level of a year ago, when Russian troops were on the approaches to the city and, it seemed, were ready to storm the presidential palace.

Restaurants are open, supermarket shelves are full, and dog walkers take their pets to snowy city parks.

And despite the bitter cold and the impending conflict, young people still meet and look to the future of their country with hope.

(source: news.ro)