In recent years, given its risks changing of the climate and destructive floods both abroad (for example, Germany, July 2021 – 220 dead), and in our country (flood Mandras November 2017 – 25 dead), scientists are wondering how likely it is that extreme flooding will happen again in the future.

The assessment from the new Greek study is that, based on a long-term trend, over time such incidents are likely to become more frequent in Greece and the wider region. Over the past 140 years, Greece has the fourth most severe and deadly flooding in the Eastern Mediterranean with 12 cases, behind Italy (51), Turkey (35) and Egypt (14). In general, severe flooding is less common in the Balkans than in Italy and Turkey.

A study relating to the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, including Greece, was recently published in the journal Water by Dr. Michalis Diakakis (Research Fellow, Department of Geology and Geoecology, EKPA), Dr. Katerina Papagiannaki (Special Operations Scientist, National Observatory Research Institute for Environment and Sustainability Athens) and Meleti Foskaris (PhD student, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, EKPA). The researchers note that despite advances in technology and risk management, catastrophic high-life floods are occurring at an alarming rate around the world, and Southern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean are no exception.

Researchers studied catastrophic floods over the past 140 years, identifying a total of 132 events over 14 decades (1882-2021) that resulted in between 10 and 598 deaths in 13 Eastern Mediterranean countries (Greece, Italy, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina , Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya).

The research results show that floods with numerous human casualties in the region are not uncommon and occur with the following frequency:

– Every six months, events with more than 10 deaths,

– Once every almost three years, events with more than 22 deaths,

– Once every nine years, floods claim more than 82 lives.

Specifically, in our country and in the Balkans, floods with the death of more than 10 people occur every 6.5 years (5% probability for a random year), and floods with the death of more than 22 people occur once every 12 years. Most floods in Greece and neighboring countries occur between October and November (but also in summer), while in the southernmost countries mainly from October to December.

In addition, the study showed that the number of extreme floods with many casualties has increased significantly over time. In particular, extreme floods with more than 10 casualties recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean region in the period 1987-2021 are almost twice as many as in the period 1952-1986, and almost three times as many as in the period 1917 -1951

“The results of the survey,” according to the researchers, “show that the Eastern Mediterranean region is experiencing a significant increase in extreme flooding, with multiple casualties and wide-ranging impacts on infrastructure, property, and socio-economic activities.”

As pointed out by APE-MPE Dr. Diakakis, “the findings highlight the importance of long-term planning by the state to prevent and reduce the negative effects of intense events, as well as timely and systematic informing citizens about weather risks and self-protection measures.”