On Tuesday, Russian forces did not gain significant ground around Bakhmut, and it is unlikely that Russian forces were advancing at the pace Russian sources claimed, the Institute for the Study of War said. The American think tank reminds that Russian military bloggers write about the lack of weapons in both camps.

Ukrainian military fired artillery in DonbasPhoto: Ukrinform / Shutterstock editors / Profimedia

Some Russian media bloggers claim that Kremlin forces broke through the Ukrainian defense line south of Bakhmut along the T0513 highway to advance towards Chasovoy Yar, which would cut one of the two main Ukrainian land lines to Bakhmut, but ISW considers this unlikely. Russian troops will be able to quickly surround Bakhmut.

The main reason may be that Russia continues to face a shortage of equipment and difficulties in supplying mobilized troops.

A prominent Russian military blogger has argued that Russian forces must use World War II-era artillery and cheap, low-quality military equipment to meet the challenge of arming Russian soldiers.

The blogger claimed that both Russia and NATO countries were facing a shortage of weapons, and presented cheap, simple and old equipment of inferior quality as a way to “quickly and cheaply” meet the needs of the troops.

The second wave of mobilization

Against the background of the lack of equipment, some mass media reported that there could be a second wave of mobilization.

Russian mass media reported on official actions “indicating a probable second wave of mobilization for which the Russian military system is extremely unprepared.”

On November 27, the military commissariat of the city of Kirov, located approximately 896 kilometers northeast of Moscow, issued summonses to the employees of an unknown local enterprise to “clarify their military credentials” by the beginning of 2023.

Russia’s military formation structures have not recovered from the last mobilization, and the military industry is not keeping up with demand, so it is unlikely that Russia’s military formation infrastructure will be able to accommodate another such rapid wave of mobilization, ISW says.