As the calendar winter approaches, the weather gets colder. In the USA and Canada or in Europe, many people follow the forecast: when and how much will it snow?

We should know from the beginning that the weather around the globe is influenced by… girl and boy: La Niña and El Niño! Together with the neutral, which as its name suggests is yet to be determined, they are members of the ENSO family: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and cause significant changes in water temperature, surface pressure, winds and rainfall in the tropical Pacific. ENSO strongly affects the atmosphere-ocean feedback system, which in turn affects global weather.

El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO, while La Niña is the cold phase, and it’s what defines our weather for this three-year period before giving way to a neutral phase that quickly gives way to El Niño.

For Europe, the most used and valuable forecasting system is the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), research institute and 24/7 operational service of the Copernicus-EU project.

Seasonal averages show lower average snowfall across much of Europe, indicating continued high pressure. This does not mean that there will be no snow, just that there will be less than usual.

The forecast for December announces significant negative anomalies. The model appears to be under the influence of a high pressure system, and the forecast is reserved for widespread snowfall and snowfall scenarios.

January does not promise much for farmers and skiers either. The forecast for most of the continent indicates light snow in mid-winter. Northern Europe and the Alps appear to be the most affected by the shortage.

And in February, the forecast shows that the potential snow will decrease even more. The pattern is basically the same as what has been forming since September.

There are also dates for March. We know that March can be cold and bring snow. But even then, we are forecast to have a below-normal end to the cold season.

Since you should never trust a single forecast model, we also turn to the UKMO, also a long-range forecasting system. It was developed by the UK Met Office, as the initials indicate.

It also shows a more skeptical snow forecast for much of the continent, except for the far north. UKMO uses different parameters than ECMWF but correlates equally with snowfall.

More dynamic than ECMWF, UKMO opens up more opportunities in this field. December and January indicate more snow in northern and western Europe, but this coincides with a more subdued forecast for February.

Source: Severe Weather Europe