The 23-ton stage of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket, which launched the third section of China’s first space station, will fall somewhere on Earth on Friday. It is not known where the segment will fall, but there is no chance that it will make it to Europe.

The rocket successfully launched the Mengtian module, which is also a science laboratory for China’s space station, which is expected to operate for at least 10 years.

As in the previous two occasions when Chinese rockets launched two other modules into space, one stage of the rocket returns to Earth, but it is not known where it will end up because there is no guidance system and no possibility for the booster to land at a fixed point and be reused.

According to rough estimates, part of the 23-ton weight will fall around 13:20 Romanian time (with a margin of plus/minus 3 hours) somewhere in the South Pacific Ocean, but it is impossible to know where it will end up.

There is a zero chance of it falling in Europe and a high chance of it falling in areas such as Central America, parts of North America and Africa, or southeastern Australia.

Part of the rocket’s stage will burn up and disintegrate in the atmosphere, but pieces weighing somewhere between 6 and 10 tons are expected to reach the ground.

On July 24, debris from a Chinese rocket with the second module of the station landed off the coast of the Philippines, and during the first launch in 2020, debris from the rocket fell near a village in Ivory Coast (West Africa).

And in 2023, another such event will take place, when the Chinese will launch a space telescope called Xuntian.

Sources: Space.com, New York Times