Statements by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu regarding the categories of Russian men who will be exempted from partial mobilization may not reflect the intentions or orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment released overnight.

A source told Russian media on Saturday that Russian Defense Ministry officials had personally reprimanded the military commissars for neglecting to conduct mobilizations and sending out “excessive” summonses, and against the ministry’s clear instructions on exemptions based on age, disability and other criteria.

Another Russian source said that some heads of republics and regions of the Russian Federation (federal constituents) admitted to mobilizing technically unfit citizens.

Mobilization in Russia is marked by confusion and disorganization

Accountability for partial mobilization appears fragmented and complex, potentially contributing to confusion, disorganization, and violations of Shoigu’s waiver obligations.

The mobilization decree stipulates that the federal units are responsible for the mobilization, and the quotas and terms of their involvement are established by the Ministry of Defense.

A Russian military blogger criticized the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region for not taking an active part in recruitment and noted that the mobilization decree puts the implementation of mobilization orders on the heads of federal units, not military commissars.

However, military commissars are more likely to work for the heads of Russian republics and regions rather than directly for the Ministry of Defense, making both responsible for mobilization and creating a possible disconnect between them and the Ministry of Defense.

Military commissars tend to act as if they have been told to prioritize sending people to training centers over carrying out Shoigu’s directives, and the apparently confused chain of responsibility for implementing the mobilization decree may explain the discrepancies between his statements to Shoigu and the actions of the commissars. .

The pressure to meet the quota of soldiers creates chaos

Shoigu strongly emphasized on Wednesday that the mobilization was partial and would rely only on those already in the reserves with combat experience and military experience, but military commissars have largely ignored Shoigu’s instructions since the mobilization order began.

Persistent reports that military commissars are distributing drafts in a haphazard fashion suggest that they are under considerable pressure to mobilize as quickly as possible.

Ukrainian sources said that the Russian authorities would immediately mobilize men from the occupied territories of Ukraine after “rewarding” them with Russian passports for participating in the so-called referendums, instead of waiting for the annexation to make the mobilization of the respective men from the Russian-occupied territories legal. according to Russian legislation.

This rush suggests that these military commissars are feeling pressure to speed up mobilization, which is not reflected in Shoigu’s statements.

The Ministry of Defense clearly does not fully control the mobilization, which raises questions about which Russians are actually being mobilized and how effective the mobilized forces will be.

Putin rotates personnel instead of changing the system

The reshuffle of Russia’s top military leaders continues, suggesting that Putin continues to view systemic problems as the result of personal mistakes by senior subordinates.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Saturday that Colonel General Mykhailo Mizintsev has been appointed Deputy Minister of Defense and will oversee the logistical support of the Russian Armed Forces, replacing General Dmytro Bulgakov.

Previously, Mizintsev headed the Russian National Defense Management Center and participated in Russian operations in Syria, in particular, he commanded troops at the operational-tactical level during the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol.

The replacement of individual senior leaders is unlikely to solve the fundamental structural problems of the Russian army.

This reflects Putin’s personal approach to leadership and relative disdain for system building, factors that have contributed to the overall failure of the Russian military in this war.

Ukrainian prisoners of war could be thrown into battle

Perhaps Russian troops are preparing to forcibly mobilize Ukrainian prisoners of war to fight on the side of Russia, which would be a violation of the Geneva Convention.

Russian state media reported on Saturday that Ukrainian prisoners of war held at the Olenivka camp “verbally appealed” to the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) to allow them to fight in the DPR’s “Bohdan Khmelnytskyi” volunteer Cossack battalion.

If Russian or separatist forces force Ukrainian prisoners of war to fight, it would be a violation of the Geneva Convention, which states that “no prisoner of war may at any time be sent or held in areas where he may be exposed to fire in a combat zone” and should not “engage in work that is unhealthy or dangerous in nature”.

Key findings of ISW:

Local military commissars are carrying out draft orders in a way that suggests a possible discrepancy between Shoigu’s instructions for partial mobilization and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promptness requirements.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to continue to address systemic problems in the Russian high command by replacing individual senior subordinates.

Perhaps Russia is preparing for the forced mobilization of Ukrainian prisoners of war, which may be considered a violation of the Geneva Convention.

Ukrainian troops likely continued to make gains along the border between the Kharkiv-Luhansk region and northwest of Liman.

The Ukrainian military has said that its strikes in southern Ukraine are undermining Russia’s combat capabilities.

Russian sources identified three locations where Ukrainian troops conducted ground operations in the Kherson region – the north of the region, the west of the region, near the Ingulets River, and the northwest of the city of Kherson, near the border between Mykolaiv and the Kherson region. .

Russian troops carried out ground strikes in the area of ​​the city of Bakhmut, in the city of Donetsk and in the west of the Donetsk region. The Russian authorities continue to force residents of the occupied Ukrainian territories to vote in falsified referendums.

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