For several reasons, Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes statements against Greece almost every day. The same model is followed by high-ranking officials of Turkey, while Turkish analysts do not stop talking – and presenting (!) – the ways of the invasion of Turkish troops to Greece, write Greeks from IN, quoted by Rador.

Despite the fact that talk of a possible Greek-Turkish confrontation has continued for many years with varying intensity, it is clear that the dispute has now gained momentum against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – at first unexpected for many.

What happened? What does Erdogan want and how big is the risk of a military clash with Greece?

These are the questions posed by Michael Rubin in his analysis for the American Enterprise Institute network.

The list of countries that have suffered Turkish aggression is long. Turkey occupies a third of Cyprus. He used his F-16s and special forces against the Armenians.

According to Iraqi officials, Turkey has established 68 outposts on the territory of Iraq – from small platoon-level facilities to full-fledged military bases. The Turkish Air Force bombards Iraq every night. Turkey is “destroying” entire areas of northern Syria.

In this context, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly sharp threats against Greece should worry us. Indeed, tensions between the two NATO members are nothing new and date back decades to Turkey’s current unstable leadership. But there are four factors that distinguish the current crisis.

First of all, Erdogan is an avenger. He seeks to revise — always in Turkey’s favor — the century-old Treaty of Lausanne, which established Turkey’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria.

He falsely claims that Greece is violating demilitarization agreements, while Turkish politicians, including Erdogan’s coalition partner and nationalist party leader Devlet Bahçeli and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, continue to argue that Turkey should own all the islands east of the middle line into the Aegean Sea.

Turkey is not limited to this provocative attitude only to the presentation of some cards. Turkish planes regularly violate the airspace of Greek islands such as the island of Kastellorizo. Statements by the State Department, which maintains an equal position, worsen the situation.

Simply put, Turkey is violating Greek airspace and occupying part of Cyprus, not the other way around. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has to say it straight. Moral relativism and lies are not the basis for peace and justice.

Secondly, Turkey’s economy is collapsing. Erdogan came to power two decades ago amid widespread discontent over inflation, the weakening of the Turkish lira and the corruption of the ruling elite. Today, inflation is over 80%, the Turkish lira has lost over 80% of its value in the last five years, and Erdogan and his family have become billionaires.

Since the Turkish president rules with dictatorial methods, suppressing, imprisoning or marginalizing any dissenting voice, he cannot deny his responsibility for Turkey’s plight.

Instead, he looks for a crisis to distract himself. Seizing a few Greek islands and provoking Athens into action would be the perfect diversion.

The same dynamic is being observed now that Turkey is approaching elections. At the State Department, there is a tendency toward wishful thinking: Many supporters of U.S.-Turkish relations acknowledge how problematic Erdogan can be, but hope that voters tired of his excesses will simply vote him out in next year’s election. They are using this hope to limit any action that would hold Turkey accountable.

The problem, however, is that they assume that Erdogan, who has described himself as a servant of Sharia and the imam of Istanbul, will accept the will of the people.

The reality is that if Erdogan thinks he can lose the election by a margin that makes any…intervention impossible, then he will provoke a crisis and declare a state of emergency, using that as an excuse to avoid the election. For Erdogan, a war with Greece would be the perfect solution.

Ultimately, the Biden administration had the wrong approach. Although the US president took office more resistant than Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama or Donald Trump to attempts to woo Erdogan, his team has taken a significant step back in recent months, particularly on the sale of F-16s to Turkey. .

Perhaps Biden and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan believed this would appease Erdogan after losing the F-35 contract and encourage Turkey to help Ukraine.

But it had the opposite effect: Erdogan took Biden’s move as a “green light” to increase attacks on its neighbors and as a signal that Turkey could buy additional S-400 missiles from Russia without repercussions.

Meanwhile, Turkey is playing a double game in Ukraine, helping Russia avoid the diplomatic and economic consequences of its actions.

A war with Greece may not happen because of any mistake by Athens, but because Erdogan is desperate to divert attention from failure and bankruptcy.

The questions the Biden administration will likely have to answer in the coming year are what can be done to deter Turkish aggression, what the United States can do to help Greece better counter Turkish drones, planes and missiles, and whether it will remain The United States is inactive if a NATO member attacks a loyal ally, IN reports.