Taiwan is bracing for a possible show of force from China in anticipation of a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is expected to arrive on the island on Tuesday evening.

Pelosi, 82, will become the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years. Her visit is not officially supported by President Joe Biden’s administration, which has repeatedly distanced itself from the move but said it has no control over Pelosi’s decision.

The visit also puts China at a standstill. After speaking out so strongly and publicly against her trip and warning of possible military or economic retaliation, President Xi Jinping cannot afford to look weak now.

A show of force by Beijing

Beijing warned on Tuesday that the United States would be “responsible” for Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and that it would have to “pay a price”. “The United States will definitely bear responsibility (for the consequences) and will have to pay the price for the attack on China’s sovereignty and security,” Chinese diplomatic spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.

China considers Taiwan a Chinese territory and has said it will unite it politically, even if it has to be done by force

On Tuesday, China sent warplanes to the Middle Line, the unofficial demarcation line in the Taiwan Strait between mainland China and Taiwan.

Its forces have also conducted exercises, and China’s military’s Eastern Command released a video saying it was “fully prepared for any eventuality”.

Pelosi’s gesture 30 years ago, which was not forgotten in China

Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, if it happens, would be a diplomatic coup, but more symbolic. Such displays of international support are rare for Taipei, which Beijing has systematically sought to isolate from diplomatic recognition.

Nancy Pelosi is a fierce critic of China’s policies, drawing attention to human rights violations not only now, but from the very beginning of her political career.

Three decades ago, two years after the Chinese authorities brutally suppressed mass protests in Tiananmen Square, Pelosi joined a bipartisan delegation of the US Congress that unfurled a banner in Beijing dedicated to “those who died for democracy in China.” A small protest was quickly stopped by the Chinese police.

Taiwan, sandwiched between two giants

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which is claimed by China, will further increase friction between Washington and Beijing at a time of heightened military tensions and rhetoric.

Indeed, throughout its modern political existence, Taiwan has been sandwiched between two giant rivals: the United States and China.

For decades, Taiwan was under martial law under the US-backed Chiang Kai-shek regime, which fled to the island after being overthrown by Mao Zedong. In the 1950s, Beijing and Washington came close to war twice when China attacked territories controlled by Taiwan.

Cold War dynamics eventually gave way to more pragmatic ties in the 1980s and 1990s, as Taiwan democratized and China showed openness after the devastating Cultural Revolution.

The limits of the new relationship were tested in 1995 and 1996, when China opposed a visit by then-Taiwanese President Li Teng Hui to Cornell University, where he was to deliver a speech on “Taiwan’s Experience of Democratization.” China fired missiles near Taiwan’s main island as a warning to Lee and again as Taiwan prepared for its first presidential election. The crisis ended when President Bill Clinton sent two carrier battle groups to the ends of the Taiwan Strait.

Today, Taiwan has again found itself in the web of hostilities of great powers. China is its biggest trading partner and biggest threat. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China’s military posture has become more assertive, with Chinese military aircraft and ships often passing near the island.

The United States, Taiwan’s main guarantor of security, has often seemed distracted by domestic problems and conflicts elsewhere in the world — most recently the war in Ukraine — even as Taiwan enjoys rare bipartisan support in Congress. Taiwan, an economic powerhouse, is also at the heart of the electronics supply chain and perhaps the world’s most important source of advanced microchips. (Sources: New York Times, Bloomberg, BBC)