The President’s Extraordinary Health Adventure Recep Tayyip Erdogan it revived the debate both at home and abroad Türkiyeabout what the post-Erdogan era might mean for the region. Even if he wins the May elections, his health problems point to the inevitable: Erdogan is aging, his health is failing, and one day he will die.

Will his political, if not real, death spell the end of the crises Turkey is causing throughout the Eastern Mediterranean?

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan’s main rival, says that if he wins, he will make Turkey “a part of the civilized world” again. To this end, Kılıçdaroğlu promised to improve relations with the United States, the European Union and NATO.

Is such feedback possible? Sure, but it will take years, if not decades, to mend the relationship.

It would be naive to expect an immediate restoration of broken ties. Although Erdogan deliberately sabotaged relations for his own domestic political gain, this was preceded by many difficulties.

An example is Cyprus, a country under occupation for almost 50 years. There can be no true peace in the Eastern Mediterranean as long as Turkey continues to hold even one centimeter of Cypriot territory, let alone a third of the island nation. Erdogan has made peace on the island more difficult in two ways. Firstly, it accelerated the resettlement of settlers to the north of Cyprus. The first Muslim inhabitants, much more moderate than the newcomers, are now in danger of disappearing.

There can be no real peace in the region as long as Turkey continues to hold even one centimeter of Cypriot territory, let alone a third of the island nation.

Secondly, every Turkish technocrat and economist knows that Erdogan’s mismanagement has ruined the Turkish economy. It will take decades to repair the damage caused by his mismanagement. Erdogan’s successors will see Cyprus the way Saddam Hussein once saw Kuwait: a goldmine whose energy reserves could save the sinking economy in the north.

Then comes the Turkish aggression in the Aegean. Kilicdaroglu may stop flights over the Greek islands, but the myths Erdogan has brought to Turkey’s populist discourse will be hard to dispel. After all, more than 30 million Turks went through the Turkish education system under Erdogan. Every officer in the Turkish army, from corporal to general, owes his career to him. Erdogan has also turned the media into a machine for spreading his misinterpretations of history and propping up conspiracy theories. Erdogan’s claims about the demilitarization of the Aegean islands, as well as the Treaty of Lausanne, may be patently false, but the Turks will continue to support them.

This story will not end with Kılıçdaroğlu. At 74 years old, Kılıçdaroğlu is just a spare. Even his supporters admit that he is old, boring and uncharismatic. There is a parallel here with the dynamics of the US elections in 2020: if Kılıçdaroğlu wins, it will be because the Turks voted against Erdoğan, not because they voted for Kılıçdaroğlu himself.

The danger is what comes after Kılıçdaroğlu. Under Erdogan, a new generation of Turkish politicians has grown up. They understand the power of populism. They understand that they anger the Young Turks with attacks and win votes.

Türkiye should not be an eternal enemy. True peace and prosperity will come to the Eastern Mediterranean only when Turkey is at peace with herself and her neighbors. The Turks must live in cooperation with the Greeks, Kurds, Armenians and Arabs, as the Germans live today with the Czechs, French, Danes and Poles.

Unfortunately, that day is still far away. Erdogan may leave soon, but Erdoganism seems to remain.

Mr. Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.