Devastating earthquakes change political relations in Turkey to an alarming degree for Erdogan, who nonetheless shows remarkable resilience after more than 20 years in power. It can also show many positive things about the rights of minorities, especially the Kurds, economic liberalization, attracting foreign direct investment, increased exports, increased Turkish diplomatic presence, and partial but visible autonomy from the West. . . .

However, many of his successes, especially in the field of economics and the treatment of minorities, are now a distant past and have been replaced by third world authoritarianism, rapid inflation, weakening of the national currency, holding on with all his might to tolerable levels, but after the elections its collapse and retreat are predicted. in key foreign policy decisions, from the acquisition of the S-400 to deployment in the Eastern Mediterranean.

So what are his strong cards in this fight to the end? The economy is unhealthy and investor confidence is being undermined by Erdogan’s methods (famous Erdoganomics), despite record exports and its comparative advantages including industrial production, cheap labor, young population, which could be the catalyst for Turkey to become a reference point in the supply chains that are being formed.

In foreign policy, many compatriots see Erdogan as a leader who not only changed the face of Turkey, but also made it a major international player, but many do not trust his bigotry and consider his policies to be arrogant and dead. – the end, especially in the overstrain of foreign policy, due to the fact that it has opened many and simultaneous fronts.

They accuse him of seriously undermining Turkey’s authority by alienating it from traditional partners and plunging it into unnecessary adventures, while its neighbors, including Greece and Egypt, are strengthening their regional positions and their role in Western planning.

“Stability Option”

Erdogan is promoting himself at home and abroad as a stable and responsible choice against an objectively weaker candidate representing a motley coalition of six parties plus the pro-Kurdish Labor Party, which was cracking before Kılıçdaroğlu’s election was announced.

And here is Erdogan, pitting the firmness of his government against a coalition that could fall apart after the elections. And who, in all likelihood, will not have the necessary parliamentary majority to proceed with constitutional change, which was his top priority.

Thus, he may need to lead the country to early elections in order to change parliamentary affiliation. But Erdogan, who reportedly plans to turn to the ballot box after the municipal elections if he wins them just nine months after May, may be seeking that too.

Pharaonic design

His recent attack on the US ambassador was an attempt to prevent Washington from intervening in the event of allegations of fraud.

The paper used by the President of Turkey belongs to the projects of the future. Türkiye of the next century, as he often mentions. His own version of the country that claims, expands its spheres of influence and must maintain the strength and determination to impose its positions where necessary. And although this is an overly optimistic interpretation of reality, it resonates with a part of the domestic audience.

On this, the owner of the White House builds an anti-American narrative and gives him the opportunity to try to get closer to the United States in the shadow of devastating earthquakes. If need be, he will redirect him to make his opponent look like a servant of foreign interests, while his recent attack on the US ambassador was a signal shot of Washington’s non-interference before and after the election if the result is narrow and there are allegations of fraud.

However, the opposition is ready and will not lose heart even if the results of the first hours show a clear victory for Erdogan.

Large national projects/goals submitted last on the way to elections, mainly in the areas of defence, automotive and energy. From a fighter that will be ready in a few years, when it took the Americans almost two decades to develop it, a helicopter carrier, the first electric car, and the discovery of natural gas fields in the Black Sea.

He will use the above to demonstrate his effectiveness, the leaps Turkey has made over his years in areas it has lagged behind, and above all, he will try to hide his narrative that Turkey is becoming independent and self-sufficient.

In the economy, he has long ago opened up a bag of benefits to offset (and) the constant decline in the purchasing power of the Turks, and he offers homes and infrastructure to earthquake victims like another Black man.

“Shells”

In purely electoral terms, consider five parameters that will play an important role in the polls: the AKP’s alliance with two extreme formations, the Kurdish extremist HUDA PAR accused of terrorist attacks in the 1990s, as well as connections with the deep parastate and YRP son Erbakan ( two parties with minimal electoral presence), Erdoğan-Bahçeli’s failure to produce a joint ballot/list while the most pluralistic opposition succeeded, Kurds who support the opposition leader and in parliament will be critical to gaining a majority, Inçe, whose candidacy “cuts Kılıçdaroğlu has votes and on which Erdoğan is betting to qualify for the second round, which he expects to win, and the new voters, who at the moment seem to be roughly divided, as are Erdoğan’s chances – Kılıçdaroğlu.

* Mr. Konstantinos Filis is Director of the Institute of International Affairs, Professor at the American College of Greece and International Affairs Analyst for ANT1.