His supporters argue that despite signs to the contrary, Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains dominant on the country’s political scene. His political opponents, however, argue that localism and judicial methods are indicative of concern for his political survival. Whoever believes, it cannot be ruled out that the Turkish president, even by unorthodox means, will win the presidential election, which is estimated to be held on May 14th.

Last week, Erdogan announced a 25 percent increase in the salaries of civil servants and pensioners after hours of cabinet meetings. It was another attempt to alleviate the hardships of Turkish citizens in an economic environment where real inflation has exceeded 100% and the official rate is 64%. But a day later, Mr. Erdogan was forced to change his mind and raise the hike rate to 30%. He even promised a new raise in July 2023!

Political analysts say the change is a sign of nervousness in the government, as opinion polls don’t show the desired percentages, and people’s first reaction to the president’s raises was not at all positive. This was preceded by a 50% increase in basic wages and early retirement of 2.5 million Turks with no age limit.

All subsequent surveys conducted by various companies in Turkey show concrete data. And the most optimistic scenarios show that the ruling alliance today does not exceed 40% -42%, and for re-election Mr. Erdogan needs a percentage of 50.1%. The six opposition parties that have not officially nominated their presidential candidate are registering percentages as high as 42%-44%. If the presidential candidates are Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu or Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, the percentages reach 48%-49%. The second important data of the polls are the percentages of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, whose percentages in the polls are 10.5% and 12.5%. Political analysts emphasize that, given these data, the election of the next Turkish president will be determined by HDP Kurds.

In one day, he announced a 25 percent increase in the salaries of civil servants. And the next day raised it to 30%.

Opposition parties claim that justice is in place to block and “disappear” Mr. Erdogan’s opponents. Supreme Court of Cassation Prosecutor Bekir Şahin has called for the pro-Kurdish HDP, Turkey’s third largest political party, to be outlawed. Shaheen claimed that the HDP was “organically” linked to the terrorist organization PKK. “They act almost like military registration and enlistment offices,” the prosecutor says, adding that “85 million citizens of the country know that this party is an organ of the PKK and has direct links with it.” HDP co-chair Mithat Senjar spoke of a “judicial conspiracy against us”.

Two weeks ago, the Turkish Constitutional Court ruled to suspend a state grant of around 27 million euros to the HDP. HDP head Selahattin Demirtas has been imprisoned since 2016. Hundreds of HDP officials and elected mayors, who were elected mainly in southeastern Turkey, where there are many Kurds, were arrested and replaced with officials appointed by the Turkish government.

Political scientists also recall the sentence of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to 2 years and 5 months in prison last month. If the decision is upheld by the Court of Appeal, he will be deprived of all his political rights. The condemnation of Imamoglu also caused a split in the six-party opposition alliance, with Good Party chairman Meral Aksener supporting Imamoglu’s candidacy for the presidency, while Republican People’s Party chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu insists on his candidacy.

Seasoned journalists from the neighboring country whom K spoke to believe that the Turkish government may want final negotiations with the HDP Kurds. In exchange for a free descent to the elections, he can claim their support in the person of Erdogan. Otherwise, the HDP will face punishment in the form of a ban on activities, and MPs and members of the party may be prosecuted and imprisoned, like Selahattin Demirtas. The Turkish government denies this information and speaks of the independence of the judiciary, while insisting that it does not interfere in the work of judges.