From a political point of view, 2023 is the year leading up to the most important election cycle of the last decade, when four rounds of elections will take place: European, local, parliamentary and presidential. The leaders of the two main ruling political parties PSD and PNL will have to confirm in 2023 and convince their local leaders and mayors that they deserve to be at the helm. In this context, in 2023 there will be a power struggle at the government level between the PSD and the PNL, and the control of the ministries will be debated in blood.

The beginning of the year will be marked by appointments in the judicial system (DIICOT, DNA prosecutor’s office), which will be followed by political negotiations on the change of positions in the government between PSD-PNL and UDMR.

According to the political agreement signed in 2021 during the formation of the Coalition, the PSD-PNL-UDMR should replace the government and the ministries of exchange and the prime minister on May 25, 2023. More precisely, the protocol provides that the first candidate for the post of Prime Minister, Minister Nikolae Chuke, will have a mandate until May 25, 2023, and the second candidate from the PSD – until the 2024 general elections.

In addition to the rotation of prime ministers, PSD and PNL and UDMR will also exchange ministries. The political agreement signed in the Coalition concerns four ministries: transport, investment and European projects, justice and finance (the last two are key ministries, as they approve all projects that pass through the Government)

• The political agreement signed by PSD-PNL-UDMR: “When the Prime Minister changes, in accordance with the agreed political rotation, the following representatives in the government will also be replaced: the Deputy Prime Minister from the PSD will be replaced by the Deputy Prime Minister a minister from the PNL; the minister of transport from the PSD will be replaced by a candidate for this portfolio from the PNL, and the PSD will take over the Ministry of Investments and European Projects; the minister of public finance from the PSD will be replaced by the holder of this portfolio from the PNL, and the PSD will take over the leadership of the Ministry of Justice; the PSD coordinator of the General Secretariat of the Government will be replaced by a representative of the PNL, and the PSD will take over the coordination of the Prime Minister’s office.”

Apart from the agreements and official documents, the intentions are different at the political level. The Social Democrats have given public signals that they want to keep some portfolios.

At the beginning of October, in an interview with DCNews, PSD President Marcel Čolaku said that the ministries of transport and European funds should not change in 2023.

• “It will be a discussion. The signed agreement provides for certain changes, but there will be practical discussions, and we will have the most balanced decision. The Ministry of Transport should be changed to the Ministry of European Funds. From my point of view, both ministries have broken the deadlock. At least with the European funds, God helped, in the literal sense of the word. In transport, it was not so ankylosed (…) There should be a rotation between the two ministries, but do we want to destroy what works just for political pride, or do we continue to strengthen what works?”. (Marcel Cholaku, DCNews interview – October 6.)

Key portfolios PSD wants to keep

Apart from public statements and an officially signed protocol, the wishes of the PSD and the PNL are obviously different. The Social Democrats want to keep the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance. why Things need to be seen from PSD’s internal point of view as well as from the 2024 election year point of view.

Sources inside the PSD claim that Marcel Cholaku wants to keep the transport portfolio for his friend Sorin Grindeanu. “Besides friendship, Çolaku has a direct interest in Grindyanu being part of the future government and not being too involved in decisions in the PSD. For the political perspective that he is preparing, Cholaku does not need internal opponents to join forces, but for them to worry each in their own corridor”, PSD sources claim.

The rate of preservation of the financial portfolio also depends on the power and influence of the PSD leader in the electoral perspective. “As prime minister, no access to money means no power, Marcel Cholaku would risk a weak mandate, being prime minister without much-needed control over local leaders in the run-up to the election,” – HotNews. ro sources explain.

“In our opinion, internal affairs and defense can be taken over by the PNL. In the perspective of organizing elections in 2024, exchanging finances, the liberals could leave internal affairs, and we would support them taking over the Ministry of Development from the UDMR, and they get culture,” PSD sources also explain.

The Social Democrats rely on the PSD leadership with Nicolae Chuke, Lucian Bode, and President Klaus Iohannis to speak.

The Liberals want to keep the political agreement and two more important ministries

On the other hand, some PNL leaders in the party leadership rule out any negotiations with the PSD regarding the finance and transport portfolios. “The discussion will begin with compliance with the agreement. Transfer of finance or transport is excluded. Two portfolios are non-negotiable and belong to PNL. Any surrender of these two ministries will lead to a rebellion within the NLP. Local leaders, mayors would be very unhappy,” the PNL leader told HotNews.ro.

At the same time, a critical mass was created in the NLP against the Minister of Energy, Virgil Popescu. According to liberal sources, several leaders want to replace him from the position with the possibility of handing over the PSD portfolio in exchange for the Ministry of Defense.

Instead, Prime Minister Nicolae Chuke avoided any comments or suggestions within the party on the topic of upcoming talks at the roundabout on May 25, 2023. On an unofficial level, Chuke said in the party that he wants to keep the ministry of European projects. “This ministry, managed very well by Bolosh, is producing results and it will give us an additional image,” Cuke is said to have said in the PNL, according to liberal sources contacted by HotNews.ro.

The functions of key institutions are combined with the coordination of ministries

Negotiations on the portfolios of the future government will also take place at the second level of institutions, such as the General Secretariat of the Government, which will return to the NLP, and the management of the Prime Minister’s Office will be taken over by the Social Democrats.

Marian Neatsu, a confidante of Marcel Čolaku, will leave the general secretariat and, according to HotNews.ro sources, head the Competition Council (where the PSD-PNL recently changed the fixed competition law to replace the institution’s current head, Bohdan Chirica).

At the same time, PSD is interested in the leadership of ASF (Financial Supervision Authority), while PNL and UDMR would be directly interested in appointing people to the leadership of ANRE and ANCOM.

The head of the Senate will be Nicolae Chuke, and the leadership of the Chamber of Deputies will be the deputy from Bistrica, Daniel Suchiu, a loyal leader of Marcel Čolaku.

Challenge of 2023 for Cholak and Chuke

2023 is the year leading up to the most important election year of the last decade, namely 2024, when four types of elections will be held: European, local, parliamentary and presidential.

At the level of PSD and PNL, a scenario is also taken into account, according to which the two parties remain partners in power, combine the two types of elections (local and parliamentary), and after 2024 the Social Democrats and Liberals share the head of government and the presidency.

The leaders of the two main ruling political parties, PSD and PNL, will have to confirm in 2023 and convince their local leaders and mayors that they deserve to be at the helm.

By entering the PSD government and the way he led the party in 2022, Marcel Čolak managed to reassure local leaders and mayors. Access to resources, appointment of party personnel to important positions, as well as potential political opponents ensured Cholak peace in the party.

From the position of prime minister, depending on how he performs, Marcel Cholaku will be able to continue or not, and as the leader of the PSD will run for the presidential elections in 2024.

On the other hand, 2022 was a difficult year for the PNL. In the midst of an ongoing leadership crisis, the Liberals recognized that decisions must be made in Kotrochen and rallied their benches behind Nicolae Chuke and Lucian Bode.

The alliance with the PSD, the lack of political experience and poor communication with the public of the current PNL leadership led to a loss of trust among the traditional liberal electorate and generated internal discontent.

In 2023, the current PNL leadership led by Nicolae Chuke will face discontent from local leaders, as well as the need to find a solution to increase the number of votes in the elections. All this in the context of President Klaus Iohannis starting to lose his influence over the party in terms of the end of his mandate.

• PSD has lowest score in the last year, AUR just two percentage points behind PNL – INSCOP survey / How the parties fared in the polls in 2022 and what to expect in 2023