July 2019 is known in air force circles as the month when Turkey destroyed an opportunity it had cherished for the previous decade: to become one of the first countries in the world to acquire fifth-generation fighter jets. F-35. After the arrival of the former Russian S-400 in Turkey, then US President Donald Trump announced, and a few hours later it was officially announced, that Turkey had permanently phased out the F-35. Much followed, the Turkish Air Force was just beginning to recover from the shock of massive desertions, prosecutions and resignations that had left it paralyzed for a significant period of time. Ankara’s request to the US for a program worth about $6 billion, which will upgrade 80 existing F-16s and buy 40 new ones, is really an attempt by Turkey to make up for everything that has happened in Greece since 2019. when i.e. Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to throw away the unimaginable advantage that would give Turkey the acquisition of the F-35.

Air power

Even if the issue with the F-16 is resolved after the decision of Congress, the first aircraft can be delivered as early as 2025, and new ones can arrive in Turkey in 2026.

An x-ray of two air forces shows that, based on current data, Turkey will not be able to change the balance of air forces over the Aegean in the next 8-10 years. The Greek fleet currently has 153 F-16s. Of these, 83 will be upgraded to the F-16 Viper by 2027-2028. A very distinctive feature of the Vipers is that they are equipped with an AESA type radar, a system that will make them fully compatible when Greece gets its own F-35s. A few months ago, a Greek request to upgrade a total of 38 Block 50 F-16s was sent to the US, which is expected to receive a positive response as the work takes place at their facilities. air force in Nea Agialos. In PA colors, they still carry a total of 33 F-4 Phantoms, while the power multiplier for Greece has always been French fighters, which Turkey does not have. In the arsenal of P.A. A total of 24 Mirage 2000-5s remain, with 12 Rafales to be added by the end of the year. In 2024, all 24 Rafals that Greece will purchase from the French Dassault will be included in the delivery, and with weapons systems that have additional combat value, such as the Meteor air-to-air missile and the sub-strategic Scalp EG missile. and, of course, the acquaintance P.A. An exocet that can also carry the Mirage-2000-5.

In 2028-30, it is possible that Greece will already acquire the first F-35s. This means that Turkey should have a real road race. Although the availability of Turkish F-16s has improved, the fleet of 234 F-16s and 19 F-4s is aging. Looking ahead to 2030, it becomes quite clear that Turkey is lagging behind in terms of fighter aircraft. The order to upgrade Turkish F-16s is a countermeasure, while 2023 will see whether the 2021 agreement between Ankara and Qatar to temporarily park up to 36 French Rafale F3Rs on Turkish soil will be seen to be implemented. to study the fighter delivered by Greece. Ankara is trying to close part of the gap with domestically produced UAVs, which are used for recording and surveillance, as well as for violations and overflights. It is noted that, as K reported, even if the F-16 issue is “unblocked” after the decision of Congress, the first upgraded aircraft may not be delivered until 2025, and new ones may arrive in Turkey in 2026.