Middle line between Greece (mainland and island) and Libya based on the latest proposal presented by Tripoli in the latest negotiations with Athens in 2011 is the southern limit of the new directive (NAVTEX) issued on Saturday.

NAVTEX is expanding the scope of research on behalf of the ExxonMobil consortium in the southeastern part of the “field” near Crete and sets the duration of research at 30 days. The expansion from the very limited limits that were approved in the first phase is being undertaken in a very specific context.

First, the US consortium has been pressuring the Ministry of Energy to expand the area, as it is believed that there are opportunities for significant natural gas deposits in the southwest of Crete. However, mostly at the geopolitical level, Athens wants to signal its intention to negotiate with Libya on the delimitation of maritime zones over territory that may hide resources that will be exploited in a mutually beneficial way for both countries.

The Greek side is concerned about the possibility that the Libyan interim government will allow the Turks to move southwest of Crete.

Of course, the Greek side is wary of the possibility of Ankara exerting pressure on the current, interim, but very active Tripoli government on issues not under its jurisdiction, such as licensing the Turkish Oil Company (TRAO) for investigations under the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. The fact that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ contacts with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken preceded the extension of the investigation suggests that Washington knows what Athens is planning and their logic to act in this way. According to some estimates, the very initiative of ExxonMobil to ask Athens to immediately promote research in this area indicates the attitude of the Americans towards the Greek project. There is a perception in Athens that the Tripoli administration and the Turkish government are likely to accuse Greece of having invaded the non-demarcation zone.

Informed sources tell K that the reason the new NAVTEX was chosen for release based on a proposal submitted by Libya in 2011 is to convey the message that Greece is ready to resume negotiations in order to – at some moment – some kind of agreement. The only NAVTEX points expected to shift slightly south of Libya’s 2011 proposal are those located in areas where Greece claims more influence due to the existence of the islands. One point, of course, concerns Gavdos, and the second the islands of Schis and Sapienza opposite Methoni in the southwestern Peloponnese, and from the Greek point of view, they offer the possibility of greater influence.

An additional reason for speeding up the release of the new NAVTEX is to make it clear to the government of Tripoli that Athens cannot tolerate the new à la Turkish concept of maritime demarcation based on a median line between continental coastlines without taking any action. considering the intermediate islands.

Following this logic, the interim government of Tripoli signed the first Turkish-Libyan memorandum in 2019 at the expense of Eastern Crete and the Dodecanese.

All these preparations have been made lately in consultation with the competent services of the Ministries of Energy (which is promoting the proposals of the American consortium ExxonMobil), Foreign Affairs (which controls the critical international political part of the matter) and the National Defense (which undertook yesterday urgently through the Hydrographic Service of the Navy to issue required NAVTEX). For the government, the way this issue is handled leaves no room for aggressive misinterpretation of Greece’s actions. However, it is assumed that Turkey will respond, even though investigations will not be carried out in the area that is in contact with the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. Although the case of “activating” the forecasts of the TPAO investigations in southern Crete remains on the table of a possible Turkish reaction, many in Athens believe that Ankara may once again transfer tensions to the areas of 2020, i.e. Rhodes and Kastelorissos, this time more targeted to provoke a crisis.

Reaction scripts lying on Ankara’s table

On the other hand, they are following the movements of Athens in Ankara with great attention after the expansion of investigations.

Early evidence shows that specific investigations do not affect Turkey’s own interests in the eastern Mediterranean.

However, analysts stress that Tripoli may react as Turkish sources say the interests of Libya’s potential continental shelf are being affected, according to the arbitrary assumptions on which the 2019 Turkey-Libya memorandum was drafted.

If the Tripoli government takes advantage of this position and issues NAVTEX for seismic surveys in areas it claims to belong to its own continental shelf, it is almost certain that Turkey will respond positively by sending its own research vessels with the aim, it is claimed, of preventing the creation from happening. But this is a political decision that no one can confidently discount.

Seasoned analysts report that the Turkish-Libyan agreement, which provides for cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon research, is a “powerful weapon” in the hands of the two countries. However, they do not lose sight of the fact that Greece is cooperating in the region with influential US interest groups.

Given the recent tensions caused by the visit of Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias to Libya and subsequent events, the Turkish government is on standby. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met in Morocco with Tripoli Foreign Minister Najla Mangus.

Under these conditions, Turkey is preparing to send its drilling rig to the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish Petroleum Exploration Company (TRAO) CEO Melih Khan Bilgin said the new drilling rig will “sail in the coming days”. His new mission is planned in the Mediterranean, we are taking an x-ray of the Blue Homeland.”

According to political analysts, in the coming days Ankara will release the appropriate NAVTEX to determine the shooting point and does not exclude the possibility of sending it to the areas of the exclusive economic zone of Libya, which in the past, as they say, were preceded by seismic surveys, although there is no specific data for such a case. However, they do not rule out that it will also be sent inside the Cypriot EEZ.

However, in recent months, Turkey has avoided exploration in areas that could cause tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, and drilling has previously taken place in areas close to the Turkish coast.

However, the visit of Nikos Dendias to Libya and Cairo and the reaction of Greece to the Tripoli government have created new data that are being studied with particular attention. Greece’s ongoing rapprochement with Egypt, the recent agreement to define search and rescue areas, and public debate in Greece to expand territorial waters to 12 miles in some areas have Turkish officials on their toes.

However, the anti-American position of the Turkish government on various fronts makes a special impression. Officials and analysts speaking to Turkish media say the F-16 upgrade is dragging on. They emphasize that if the US approves the F-16 sale, the first fighters will arrive in 2028, when Greece will modernize all F-16s, use French Rafale fighters, and probably receive F-35s.

The event that provoked a strong reaction from the United States was the statement by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who made it clear that his country would use the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system and, as he said, “could do it within an hour.” The State Department’s reaction was unequivocal, as it emphasized that it was this air defense system that threatened the security of NATO systems and threatened Ankara with new sanctions if it purchased new Russian weapons systems. Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu 15 days ago directly accused Washington of involvement in the terrorist attack on Istiklal Street in Istanbul. Recep Tayyip Erdogan put Greece and the US on the same footing. “Of course, we are concerned about the behavior of the West in Greece, especially in America. Alexandroupolis is one such problem,” Erdogan said last week, alleging that Greece and the US host and support terrorist organizations.

Turkey’s particularly close and allied relations with Russia in all areas are considered one of the important factors in such a tense and tough attitude of Ankara towards Washington.

However, opposition officials argue that one of the reasons is Turkey’s sharp retreat on its policies with Israel, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

They argue that the anti-American and anti-Greek stance sweeps under the carpet the 180-degree turn they are making on other issues, and do not exclude for this very reason that a tougher stance could be adopted, especially towards Greece.