Hostilities resumed in Nagorno-Karabakh. What is happening in the conflict zone now? Is it possible that a new war will break out in the region? Is the further aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh related to the war in Ukraine? And what is the position of Russia and Turkey? DW asked Olesya Vartanyan, an expert on the South Caucasus at the International Crisis Group, these questions.

DW: On August 3, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced the capture of several ruling heights in Karabakh during a special military operation called “Retribution”.. What exactly happened there?

Olesya Vartanyan: From the reports that we have now and that come from various sides, we understand that yesterday Azerbaijan tried to carry out a military operation. Initially this was limited to skirmishes, but later the drones came together and carried out the attack. We have seen at least three videos distributed across the Azerbaijani side, and geolocation shows that the fighting took place mainly in the north and northwest parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, and also not far from the road linking this region with Armenia – near the city of Lachin.

Stepanakert reports that at least two servicemen were killed and 19 were wounded. On the Azerbaijani side, there is information about a dead soldier. There was information about the movement of Azerbaijani troops along the line. But it’s still not completely clear how big these moves are and what positions they’ve managed to take. Losses are still being accounted for and events that took place directly on the front lines are still being analyzed – as it is quite long, this will take time.

– What led to the current worsening of the situation?

– Reports of escalating tensions in the region – along the front line and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone – have been pouring in for several days. For example, on August 1, Stepanakert reported that a soldier had been wounded, and after that, the Russian peace mission reported an attempt (from the Azerbaijani side. – Redninai) even change the front line. In other words, even then, the situation can lead to open confrontation directly on the ground. So what happened yesterday was a continuation of the escalation that has been observed in recent days.

– Did the war in Ukraine influence the escalation of the conflict?

– Yes, definitely. Over the past six months, we have witnessed a continuous worsening of the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. Some skirmishes happen constantly, the front lines are starting to shift. We see that Russian peacekeepers are unable to stop the growth of tension. This can be attributed, first of all, to Russia’s vulnerability in the international arena. Not everyone will be ready to believe what Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh are saying.

On the other hand, in the last six months, diplomatic mechanisms have completely collapsed, which has worked for some sort of solution to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, containment of this conflict. I mean, first of all, the OSCE and the Minsk Group, where Russia is one of the co-chairs along with the United States and France. As soon as the war in Ukraine began, the Russian foreign minister sacrificed Russian participation in this group, announcing the withdrawal of his representative from it. Such steps are not conducive to maintaining stability – especially at such a fragile time.

– And how to explain Russia’s rather passive role in the current worsening situation in Nagorno-Karabakh?

– Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been striving with all its might to prevent the emergence of any other centers of military confrontation that imply its participation, especially in the near abroad. This applies not only to Nagorno-Karabakh, but also, for example, to Georgia. Moscow is doing everything possible to prevent this from happening, because then it will have to spend some resources, which it already has little. Russia now has neither the strength nor the time to resolve any further crisis situations. Of course, this can change at any time. But so far, Moscow has done everything possible to prevent a second front from opening.

– In addition to Russia, there are other external actors in this conflict, for example Turkey. She’s interested in escalating the conflict?

– Turkey and Azerbaijan are strategic partners, they are closely linked, both politically and economically. After the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, Azerbaijan is considered one of the main alternative sources of gas and also of oil for Europe – all of this, of course, will pass through Turkey. At the same time, Ankara and Yerevan have already started the process of normalizing relations, and Turkey is interested in this process in the first place, because it helps to restore relations with the Biden government in the United States. So it’s hard for me to imagine that Turkey is currently interested in some sort of major escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Of course, everything could change if the situation becomes extremely serious or if there is any sign that Russia, for example, wants to use force against Azerbaijan. Well then, we must not forget that President Erdogan is a person who can change his point of view 180 degrees overnight. On August 5, a meeting between Putin and Erdogan is scheduled, at which, of course, they will discuss the topic of the South Caucasus. Therefore, we will be attentive to developments.

– Is there any chance that, after yesterday’s escalation, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh could escalate into a full-scale war?

– Unfortunately, there is such a possibility. After the 2020 war, the situation (in Nagorno-Karabakh. – Red.) became even more unstable, the front lines even more dangerous. Military positions are very close to each other – to the point that in many places soldiers can hear each other. On the other hand, these military positions are very close to civilian targets. So any, even a small escalation, instantly affects the locals. Because of this, the situation seems much more acute and complicated, both in terms of stopping hostilities and in terms of negotiation processes.