The regional geopolitical context has a significant impact on the speed of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia’s progress towards the European Union (EU). In the spring of 2022, Russian aggression forced the EU to offer its three Eastern European neighbors a European perspective in an extremely fast way. The threats of the Russian factor became a convincing argument in favor of the candidacy of Ukraine and Moldova for membership. However, the same Russian factor played the opposite role in the case of Georgia. The overlapping local oligarchic phenomenon with the weakening tendencies of democratic institutions forced the EU to place Georgia in the category of potential candidates, where it remains.

The results of the evaluations regarding the transposition of EU legislation prove that, in addition to the Russian threat, political calculations strongly dominated Brussels’ decisions regarding the candidacies of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, and meritocratic evaluation was secondary. In any case, from a political point of view, Ukraine and Moldova are more compatible with the candidates for EU membership. The Georgian authorities use the EU’s assessments of the application of the European acquis to indirectly reprimand Brussels for favoritism towards Moldova, as well as for the fact that Georgian results can be compared with Ukrainian ones. Georgia’s attempt to (geo)politicize Moldova’s suboptimal results in the transposition of European legislation or to put a sign of equality with Ukraine puts the EU’s enlargement policy in a negative light. Even if the Georgian government pursues internal goals, its criticism of the EU’s objectivity may strengthen the demands of European institutions in dialogue with Moldova and Ukraine regarding the timetable for the start of accession negotiations. This would contradict Kyiv’s efforts to speed up its accession to the EU (for a maximum of two years). To avoid a loss of image for the Western Balkans and possible opposition from certain member states, the EU could focus on achieving maximum results in Ukraine and Moldova before the start of accession negotiations.

A comparative assessment of progress in political and sectoral reforms, as well as harmonization with EU legislation, shows that Ukraine is a leader. Although Moldova is already a candidate country and Georgia is in the category of potential candidates (along with Kosovo), both face challenges, albeit of a completely different nature. Moldova, which performed worse than Georgia in terms of harmonization, was included in the pre-accession dialogue, while Georgia remained on the list of potential candidates. Thanks to this mediator, it can be concluded that the EU meritocratic mechanism has a major political component, where technical parameters may be less important.

Progress in fulfilling EU requirements – Ukraine and Moldova have overtaken Georgia

In the context of the Ukraine-EU summit and the EU-Moldova Association Council in the first half of February, some nuances related to the progress of the three countries in the field of European integration can be highlighted. Focusing on priority political and sectoral reforms, the EU wants progress to be irreversible. In this area, the European Commission outlined several relatively clear priority requirements, which it handed over to the national governments of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Even if the EU requests are mandatory, some politicians in these countries perceive them as “recommendations”. In fact, without fulfilling these requirements, none of the three states will be able to advance in the dialogue with the EU.

It is true that the EU may be inclined to provide a subjective (politicized) assessment of progress. This, however, depends on how the EU perceives the level of trust in national politicians. The political situation in the target country matters. Therefore, if the authorities are involved in a political scandal that risks discrediting the EU, European openness will be minimal. So far, despite the progress of reforms, only Georgia is at risk of remaining in the shadow cone in relation to the EU. This may be due to the phenomenon of oligarchy and the critical situation associated with the rapid deterioration of the health of the former president of Georgia, a citizen of Ukraine Mykhailo Saakashvili, who is being held in a Georgian prison (European Parliament, February 2023).

Analysis of progress in the implementation of EU conditions by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia shows clear results (See Table 1). Ukraine is in the lead with the fulfillment of 2 requirements out of 7 and only one requirement where additional efforts are needed. As for Moldova, the problematic topic identified in the case of Ukraine concerns the rule of law. More precisely, it is extremely necessary to create an appropriate composition of the Advisory Group of Experts based on the recommendations of the Venice Commission for the effective and non-politicized selection of judges of the Constitutional Court. Complications related to Moldova are also related to the rule of law. It is about the parliamentary majority ignoring numerous recommendations of the Venice Commission regarding the new electoral legislation. An example in this sense is the composition of the Central Election Commission, which, according to the new provisions, prefers the dominance of one party in the electoral body. In any case, the most problems are in Georgia, where, despite some progress, 4 out of 12 EU requirements must be accompanied by significant adjustments. These areas of deficit include political polarization, justice reform, deoligarization and the media. In all these areas, the government’s actions seem to be aimed at simulating progress rather than effectively solving the problem. Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro