Estonia, March 5: Prime Minister Kaya Callas, daughter of the former prime minister, was not directly elected to the post, but took over in 2021 when her predecessor resigned in the wake of the scandal. But since then, its international authority has grown significantly, and the Reform Party has its first chance. This is important for Romania because Callas is a staunch anti-Kremlin and a leader who promotes the right common policies in the EU in our region, from energy to defense, more than non-existent politicians from Bucharest. If he is not prime minister, he holds the highest position for NATO (really, not as you-know-who). Estonia’s influence in Europe currently far exceeds the size of the country.

Finland, April 2: And here the fight is over a young woman, Prime Minister Sanna Marin, but who, unlike Callas, isn’t doing very well in the polls (but not too bad either). Furthermore, he leads a Social Democratic Party that is still embarrassed by the fact that they had to join NATO so urgently; Unlike part of the party base, Sanna Marin is clearly anti-Putin. He also had the courage to introduce radical territorial reform (which created regions with elected councils to take over hospitals and social care), which came into effect this week. Interestingly, there is no electoral barrier, and a record number of 24 parties are participating in the race, so forming a coalition will be a problem (however, by Finnish standards). Another interesting thing (for me) is that I will be working on a project there in the north, so I hope they continue with the formation of the government so that there will be light and heat like in the world 🙂

Turkey, June 18: Erdogan was in power for 20 years and today, as it happens with long-lived people, he has become version 2.0 of himself: that is, for several years now he has been seriously undermining the economy that he set for growth. well into the mid-2000s. In addition, from the initial policy of “peace with all neighbors” it has moved to an interventionist, assertive policy. A list of six opposition parties has a good chance of winning despite authoritarian maneuvers, and Erdogan may lose the runoff even though one of his main challengers, the mayor of Istanbul, was recently convicted; an appeal can be considered only after the election. A new, more moderate government, which would return to a parliamentary system, reducing the functions of the president, would be important both for the EU and for the war in Ukraine.

Poland, October or November: Since it is one of the hero states in supporting Ukrainians against the Kremlin, the chronic conflict over justice reform that the ruling party, led not by a president or a prime minister, but by the historic leader Yaroslav Kaczynski, has with Europe has somehow faded into the background. When you host 1.5 million refugees who arrived in six months (almost the population of Bucharest), some things get overlooked. But the parliamentary elections are once again polarizing the atmosphere: civil opposition leader Donald Tusk is trying to defeat the conservative-oriented FIDESZ party, and the campaign will be toxic. The odds are slightly better than the Hungarian opposition in 2022, but for now the conservatives remain in first place. Hopefully, the hinge won’t consume a lot of energy and become a distraction in the war effort. It is very likely that the Kremlin will try to interfere in this campaign.

Ukraine, no later than October 29. Although it is difficult to hold elections with the war at home and in the occupied territories, this is provided for by the Constitution of Ukraine – which cannot be changed under martial law. So a new parliament will have to be elected this year (presidential elections will be held in 2024), but the situation remains unclear as to how to proceed; anyway, this is an unusual election. It will be interesting to see how competitive and fierce the campaign will be, where national unity and patriotism are the key words; the extent to which Zelenskyi will be involved in the parties’ campaign, which may reduce his credibility as a national leader and his global authority; and whether his team can repeat the surprising 43% result from 2019. Read the rest of the article on Contributors.ro