Italians went to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government, and exit polls suggest the big winner will be the right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Maloney. Moments of panic over Italian conservatives have been so frequent in recent years that it is fair to ask what is different this time.

Maloney leads the Brothers of Italy, a group descended from the country’s old fascist parties. During the campaign, she focused on culture war issues such as opposition to the “LGBTQ lobby”. Her coalition also returns to power Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Power of Italy, which Europeans see as panic-stricken, though for different reasons.

Maloney was only too reluctant to fully distance herself from her party’s fascist heritage

But at the same time, it is unclear how much policy will change under her mandate. On the economy, expect the usual (for Italy) right-wing populist agenda, based on carefully targeted tax and welfare cuts, rather than the deep reforms another Tory leader is currently trying to push through in the UK.

European elites fear this will set the stage for a new conflict between Rome and the EU over budget rules. And this is indeed a cause for concern, with Italy’s public debt approaching 150% of GDP and no plan to stimulate economic growth. But the EU has also relinquished the leverage it might have had by shielding Rome from market judgment. Massive purchases of Italian bonds by the European Central Bank narrowed the gap between German and Italian bonds, the benchmark.

On foreign policy, Meloni and her conservative allies are no more markedly pro-Ukrainian than any other Italian politician in the context of the Russian invasion. But she is no less visibly pro-Ukrainian and seems to feel the need to respect the consensus among voters who support sanctions against Russia.

Maloney followed in the footsteps of other conservatives by promising to sharply reduce illegal immigration

Maloney has followed in the footsteps of other conservatives by pledging to sharply reduce illegal immigration, possibly even through a naval blockade of Libya. Not exactly a plausible plan, but Italy is at the forefront of a wave of illegal migration that began in 2015 and has never completely stopped since. If someone in Brussels has a better idea of ​​how to get the situation under control, the Italians are likely to listen.

All this brings great continuity. The fundamental difference is that now, with Maloney’s coalition, the Conservatives may finally be allowed to govern – and that may be the real lesson of the election.

In the 2018 elections, the right-wing coalition led by Salvini won the most votes, although not a majority. But Salvini’s reputation was considered so toxic that complex machinations took place in the parliament to prevent him from becoming prime minister. He was forced to serve as deputy prime minister in an uneasy coalition with the left-wing populist Five Star Movement. Italian voters never had a chance to test the mettle of their right-wing politicians.

Disappointments caused by the 2018 election results have been compounded by two years of a pandemic and an energy crisis caused by Russia. Prior to this election, Maloney was relatively unknown and her party had never been in power. Now he is on the way to victory also because he did not join the government of national unity formed by the current interim prime minister Mario Draghi.

Maloni’s victory will open a new difficult period in Italian politics and Italy’s relations with the EU. And yet, the same can be said for any election in Italy these days. The main thing is that Italians may finally get the conservative government they seemed to want four years ago. Now they will find out if it can work.

The material was made with the support of the Rador agency