Dr. Octavian Jurma said on Thursday evening that given the latest daily reports of new coronavirus cases, it is safe to assume that the threshold of 10,000 cases per day will be exceeded on Tuesday, July 26, 2022.

“The third daily report already offers a familiar pattern for reports from Romania, with a weekly peak on Tuesday and values ​​near the weekly average until Sunday. This allows us to fairly accurately estimate the day when certain values ​​will be officially reached (…) The threshold of 10,000 cases per day will be exceeded on Tuesday, July 26, 2022,” the doctor wrote on Facebook on Thursday evening. Octavian Yurma.

He also says that either a peak of 10,000 cases will be reached in late July or a peak of more than 20,000 cases per day in mid-August.

• “It is quite certain that the threshold of 10,000 cases will be reached. However, it is not clear what will happen next. We have two possible scenarios:
• 1. a high plateau in August, as it happened in 2020 after the suspension of the quarantine law
• 2. short-term falling phase
• In both scenarios, a resumption of growth against the background of a complete lack of preventive measures in the school, which is also fueled by the import of new options after returning from holidays abroad, is very likely.

According to him, the initial impression is that the severity of BA5 in Romania is slightly higher than Omicron-BA1, but lower than Delta, which means that the impact will depend on the duration of wave 6 and not on the virulence of BA5. This profile was also expected after the theoretical and laboratory studies of BA5.

• “What worries me is the 106% increase in deaths last week and the fact that the average death rate this week is already 25% higher than last week. We only observed a 100% weekly increase in mortality in the 4-delta wave. The maximum in the 5-micron wave was 50.6%.
• If we adjust the increase in mortality according to the increase in the number of cases, the Omicron-BA5 variant is about 50% of the virulent Delta. But let’s hope that ratio decreases in the coming weeks, because if we have twice as many cases as in wave 4-Delta, then there is a risk that we will have the same number of deaths.
• At the moment, these are only theoretical assumptions. There is reason to hope that wave BA5 will be closer to wave 5 than to wave 4,” Yurma wrote on Facebook.

According to Health Minister Alexandru Rafila, the Omicron strain is dominant, and the first cases with the BA.5 subvariant, which is responsible for the re-acceleration of the pandemic, have already been identified.

From Tuesday, the Ministry of Health resumed daily reporting on coronavirus cases.

Over the past day, 3,993 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been registered.