A new energy crisis could engulf Europe next winter, when the gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia expires. An internal European Commission document obtained by Politico shows that Brussels officials are advising member states to prepare for further price increases. and consider the most pessimistic scenarios. Romania has gas production that covers domestic consumption, but prices on European stock exchanges will also be reflected here.

Electricity and natural gas prices are at risk of rising again next winter, when a 2019 agreement between Russia and Ukraine to transit gas to Europe expires.

In an internal document obtained by Politico, Brussels officials advised member states to consider the most pessimistic scenario.

Ukraine has announced that under no circumstances does it want to extend the agreement with Russia, which expires on December 31, and European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the EU executive has “no interest” in pushing for an extension of the contract.

This means that the EU will automatically lose about 5% of its total gas imports, mainly to Central and South-Eastern Europe.

“If this loss is associated with a long cold winter, the note adds, this could lead to the most pessimistic scenario for countries that rely on gas transit through Ukraine,” the Brussels edition writes with reference to the mentioned document.

The situation is complicated by the tax introduced by Germany

Such a prospect causes alarm in the region. Austria, Hungary and Slovakia are likely to be hit the hardest, says Aura Sabadus, senior analyst at consultancy ICIS.

These countries could eventually replace Russian gas imports with supplies via Germany, Italy or Turkey, but Berlin’s recent move to unilaterally tax gas exports complicates that possibility.

Sabadush showed that this tax reduces the interest of Central European countries to invest in the supply of non-Russian gas.

Germany’s neighbors insisted on discussing this measure at a meeting held yesterday in Brussels.

“We must avoid measures that will undermine the work done (reducing dependence on Russian gas – no) and strengthen the Russian aggressor,” Czech Industry Minister Josef Sikela said last week about the tax.

Romania wants to increase gas consumption

Romania has its own gas production, which can cover the country’s consumption, but this does not mean that it will become an island of cheap energy.

On the contrary, the price of gas on European exchanges is also reflected here.

The good thing is that we no longer import gas from Russia, at least officially, and we no longer do it the classic way through Ukraine.

Currently, the only entrances for imported gas are from the south, from Bulgaria, or from the west, from Hungary.

The Minister of Energy of Romania, Sebastian Burduia, took part in a ministerial meeting in Brussels yesterday.

In the press release following the event, it is said that the topic of next winter was touched upon, but nothing is said about the new fears of the top of the European Commission:

“The Ministers of Energy exchanged views on the security of energy supply and preparation for the winter of 2024-2025. Also, the ministers reached a political agreement on the proposal of the European Commission on the Council Recommendation on the extension of measures on the voluntary reduction of natural gas consumption in the EU for another 12 months.”

Minister of Energy Sebastian Burdukha:

• “We are talking about a recommendation, not an obligation in the same context of the need of other European states to reduce their dependence on Russian gas.
• I stated before the Council of Ministers that Romania does not plan to reduce gas consumption, counting on covering it from its own sources of production, especially from 2027, after the commissioning of Neptun Deep, which will make our country the first producer. gas from the EU.
• Moreover, I emphasized that, on the contrary, we expect an increase in gas consumption in Romania, both due to the restart of the chemical fertilizer industry and due to the expansion of gas distribution networks for the population through the Anghel Saligny program.

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