International oil prices are likely to remain around $80 a barrel in 2024, a Reuters poll showed, with analysts expecting weak global economic growth to limit demand while geopolitical tensions could provide support. , adopted by news.ro

Analysts doubt whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) can maintain production cuts to support the market.

Brent oil, the global benchmark, averaged about $82.17 in 2023. US per barrel, down 10% from 202222, as a strong US dollar, underpinned by a high interest rate financial environment and lower demand from its largest consumer, China had a negative impact.

A survey of 34 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude to average $82.56 in 2024, up from the November consensus of $84.43.

According to analysts, the average price of oil in the US in 2024 will be $78.84 per barrel.

“On the demand side, we do not expect significant growth in the coming months. There is still a question mark behind the offer. There are many doubts (as to whether the OPEC+ alliance will be able to cut supplies as recently decided), said Thomas Vyberek, an analyst at NORD Landbk.

Last month, OPEC+ oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to voluntarily cut oil production by another 2.2 million barrels per day by early next year.

In total, OPEC+ is cutting production by about 6 million barrels per day, and its market share has fallen to 27%.

“While it is difficult to maintain cooperation with all OPEC+ members, at this time and price level, all members support higher oil prices,” said John Paisi, president of Stratas Advisors.

In addition, analysts polled said geopolitical risks will keep oil prices volatile in the coming months.

“We believe there will be more geopolitical concern in 2024 than in 2023, and the associated risk premium will be significantly higher,” Paisi added.

Military clashes between Israel and Hamas have raised concerns that the wider conflict could affect supplies from the Middle East, the world’s largest oil-producing region. Recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea have raised fears of disruption to transport.