The indicator of macroeconomic confidence of the Association of Romania CFA decreased in November (by 5.4 points) to the value of 47.6 points, according to the statement sent on Friday by the Association of Banking Financial Analysts.

“High fiscal uncertainty keeps the macroeconomic confidence indicator low and raises inflationary expectations, with fiscal policy being the main risk to inflation. In this context, next year the survey participants expect economic growth rates similar to those recorded this year,” says Adrian Codirlașu, vice-president of the Romanian CFA Association.

• The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (December 2024) increased compared to the previous year and averaged 6.42%.

• Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 88% of participants expect the lei to depreciate in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of expectations for a 6-month horizon is 5.0069 lei per euro, while for a 12-month horizon the average value of the expected exchange rate is 5.0590 lei per euro.

• As for the development of prices for residential real estate in cities, 47% of participants expect them to decrease, while 35% of participants expect stability in the next 12 months.
• Also, 76% of participants (the highest level recorded this year) believe that current prices are inflated, and 18% – that they are valued correctly.

The forecast deficit of the state budget for this year is expected (average value of expectations) at the level of 5.7% of GDP, and for the next year, the survey participants forecast a budget deficit at the level of 5.2%.

In 2023, the expected real GDP growth is 2.2%, and in 2024, the expected economic growth is 2.3%.

Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.