Industrial production fell 4.8% in the first 10 months, data released by the INS showed on Wednesday. In October 2023, industrial production recovered again with a slight increase of 0.6%, thanks to the recovery of the production and supply of electricity and heat, gas, hot water and air conditioning (+8.3%) and mining (+1.3%). ) ). Production fell by 0.4%.

Compared to the corresponding month last year, industrial production decreased by 2.3%, which is due to a decrease in the production and supply of electricity and thermal energy, gas, hot water and air conditioning (-5.4%), processing industry (-1.9%) and mining industry (-1.5%).

This decline is larger than economists expected (they were betting on 3.9% (rather than 4.8%, as the official data shows). The recovery of domestic industry is uneven, but we believe that industrial production bottomed out in May, and the following months could come with better numbers, according to a report sent to investors on Wednesday by Erste Bank.

We see an improvement in industrial production growth to +2.8% in 2024 from -4.1% in 2023, although there is also a risk that this growth may not materialize, the report cited said.

External demand is likely to strengthen next year, as evidenced by a preliminary increase in confidence indicators in November. A faster-than-expected decline in inflation may support domestic demand for manufactured goods in 2024.