“Expectations of a recovery in economic growth in 2024 against the backdrop of increased government spending are likely to have boosted confidence in the economy. In addition, the disinflation process will continue at a much slower pace, with the inflation rate remaining above 6% at the end of next year, the main risk for the disinflation process remains fiscal policy,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA – Vice President President of the CFA Association Romania.
As for the development of residential real estate prices in cities, 47% of survey participants expect a decrease, and another 47% of participants expect stability over the next 12 months. Also, 58% of participants believe that the current prices are overstated, and 29% – that they are valued correctly.
The projected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2024) decreased compared to the previous year and averaged 6.28%.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 76% of participants expect the lei to depreciate over the next 12 months. Thus, the average expected value for the 6-month horizon is 5.0097 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average expected exchange rate is 5.0541 lei per euro.
The projected deficit of the state budget for this year: the average value of the forecast is 5.6%. For 2023, the expected value of real GDP growth was 2.0%. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 53% over the next 12 months
Source: Hot News
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