​The size and composition of the diaspora has been the subject of speculation, hoaxes and exaggerated estimates in the public domain, according to a Rethink report presented at a conference on Friday. The ethnic diaspora and diaspora of Romanian citizens were mixed, or included people involved in migration for seasonal jobs.

The diaspora has sometimes been identified with the phenomenon of “brain drain”, although the share of people with higher education in the diaspora is lower than in the country.

From Rethink’s point of view, the diaspora is represented mainly by Romanian citizens who have gone abroad and their children who have retained Romanian citizenship. People with a presumed Romanian identity can also be considered part of the diaspora, but those who were not born in Romania and are not registered as having Romanian citizenship in the country of destination become statistically invisible.

In the context of freedom of movement in the European Union, the approximate number of Romanians in the diaspora remains difficult

However, using the number of Romanian citizens registered as residents of other European states, some notable trends can be observed.

First, it is clear that there was an explosion of emigration between 2014 and 2018, with 200,000 Romanians annually settling in EU/EEA/CI countries during this period (according to Eurostat).

Between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, the number of Romanians living in other EU countries increased by almost 1.6 million in total.

Even if these figures include ethnic Romanians who returned citizenship and Romanian children born abroad, the scale of emigration is a possible indication of an underestimation of the rate of population decline between 2011 and 2021, given that there was also a natural decline of more than 690,000 people between the two censuses.

In recent years, however, there has been a reversal in this trend. The diaspora in Europe was no longer growing due to the mass emigration of people from Romania. In many communities, the number of those born in Romania has stagnated or started to decrease. In 2020, the number of people from Romania residing in EU countries and collecting data on place of birth reached an all-time high and then started to decrease.

The total number of Romanian citizens residing in other EU countries increased again in 2022 after a sharp decline in the previous year, but is well below the typical figures for the period up to 2019.

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Although some diaspora communities seem to be decreasing in numbers, Romanians continue to emigrate to some countries (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, etc.). Against the background of a large number of young people who emigrated, a significant part of children with Romanian citizenship are born in other countries (according to Rethink estimates, this is about 20-25% of the total number).

For example, in 2019 England and Wales alone recorded 16,069 births to mothers born in Romania, with this number only slightly falling to 15,518 in 2022. This figure is higher than in any county in Romania and is almost 1/12 of the number of registered births in the country. At the same time, an average of 5,000 births by mothers of Romanian origin were documented in France in recent years.

In Italy, the number of births to Romanian mothers has decreased in recent years, but still reached 14,693 in 2017.

In Spain, the number of births to the Romanian diaspora is on a downward trend, but in 2020, 8,115 children were still born to mothers who were born in Romania.

It is impossible to determine the exact number of children born annually in the diaspora due to the mobility of Romanian communities, the periodic declaration of birth in a country other than the country of permanent residence, changes in citizenship and the reporting method of different countries (some do not report the mother’s place of birth by country). But, regardless of the interpretation of the existing figures, we estimate that over the past 7-8 years, more than 50,000 children with Romanian citizenship were born annually, only in the European diaspora.

To partial repatriation?

Some diaspora communities have already experienced a numerical decrease, for example, in Spain. Some Romanians from these countries returned to the country, although there was a process of migration between diaspora communities (for example, from Spain or Italy to Germany or the United Kingdom). A fairly small part received local citizenship, dropping out of some data series. Regardless of the reasons, the downward trend is already clearly visible in the Romanian communities of Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. In Hungary, it decreased mainly due to the naturalization of residents with Romanian citizenship.

Rethink analyzed the economic and social contexts of the traditional destinations of Romanian emigrants. Some of these states are experiencing sharp declines in real incomes (e.g. Italy, -7.3% between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023).

Among the main destinations for Romanian emigrants, the UK has restricted free access to the labor market in the post-Brexit period, while Germany faces a recession in the second half of 2023. In the conditions of the recent favorable evolution of the Romanian economy, the “pull” factor, which led to the generalization of emigration in previous decades, is greatly reduced.

Given that other countries in the region are also observing a change in migration trends (for example, Lithuania or Poland), it is expected that the migration balance of Romanian citizens will balance or become positive. However, historical experience shows us that the repatriation of the majority of the diaspora is very unlikely.

The Romanian diaspora in Europe has reached almost 4 million people amid a wave of powerful emigration that has lasted more than two decades. In the period 2014-2018, the level of emigration reached the scale of a real outflow. Today there are signs that the pace of emigration has slowed and the number of repatriations has increased. Repatriation of the majority of the Romanian diaspora is unlikely, especially among those who have been away for many years.

However, remigration will be the main source of new residents if the current trends of economic convergence in the EU continue. Those who return bring with them skills, attitudes, skills and experiences that can revitalize the communities they go to.

Immigration

Considering the complexity of the phenomenon and the lack of systematic data, estimating the number of immigrants in a specific place is a difficult task. Thus, depending on how we define the term “immigrant”, we can observe different representations of this phenomenon.

In Romania, if we use the least restrictive definition (a person born outside the country of residence), the data indicate a population of more than 700,000 in 2021, which is almost 3.7% of the total population.

A possible limitation of these data is the tendency to overestimate what we usually mean by immigration. Romanian citizens born outside the country may also be included here, such as children born in diaspora communities.

In 2022, there were approximately 172,000 foreign nationals living in Romania, almost as many as the entire population of the municipality of Oradea or just under 1% of the total population. About 115,000 of them were foreigners from outside the European territory, which is about 67% of the total number of foreign citizens.

This number does not include approximately 80,000 people with a form of temporary protection who have a separate legal status. Regardless of whether we take into account foreign nationals living in Romania with a form of temporary protection, the number of foreign residents registered in 2022 is the highest in the last 30 years.

For example, approximately 150,000 foreign nationals were reported in 2021, of which 95,000 came from outside the European space (63%).

In 2020 and 2019, the number of foreigners was just under 140,000, of which approximately 80,000 (57%) were third-country nationals.

The main countries of origin of 172,000 foreign citizens registered in 2022 are the Republic of Moldova, Turkey, China and Italy. The situation has not changed significantly compared to 2021 or previous years, when we also received the largest number of foreign nationals from these countries. However, it should be noted the diversity of countries of origin.

There is a significant increase in groups of foreign nationals from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal or Pakistan. The indigenous population of these states has grown several times in recent years. Of the total number of foreign citizens, about 109,000 came to work (64%). The share and number of immigrants coming to work in Romania has increased in recent years, this group is the source of the exponential increase in the number of foreign nationals in Romania over the last decade. Other reasons for immigration of foreign citizens to Romania are education and family reunification

Integration of immigrants in Romania

The integration of immigrants is a three-way process. First, the local community plays an important role – no matter how much immigrants want to integrate into society, this process cannot happen if they are not accepted and supported. The local community seems to be willing but little interested in promoting the integration of immigrants in Romania.

For example, a comparative study at the European level shows that a relatively low proportion of Romanians consider immigration to be a social problem. Although this may seem like a pleasant message, the same study shows that Romania is one of the countries with the lowest percentage of respondents who see immigration as an opportunity. Another important aspect is the legislative and institutional framework, which plays an essential role in the integration of immigrants.

Romania seems ready in principle, but little interested – an international study shows that Romania offers integration opportunities for immigrants only “on paper”, with one of the lowest scores among EU members (49/100). It is especially worth noting the low emphasis on the civil and political rights of immigrants, an aspect that can complicate the process of their integration. Last but not least, integration is also carried out by immigrants, and for Romania recent studies indicate a medium to good level of integration.

But here it is worth mentioning a number of nuances. As expected, immigrants from the Republic of Moldova have the best level of integration, most likely due to social and cultural similarities. Another aspect is related to the fact that the longer an immigrant spends in Romania, the better his level of integration. It should be noted that some immigrant communities continue the process of integration over the next generations with mixed results.

There are, for example, communities that exhibit multigenerational endogamy: children or even grandchildren of the first immigrants and people of other ethnic or religious origins do not experience lasting marriages or romantic relationshipsxxv. From the point of view of geographical distribution, the Bucharest-Ilfov, Cluj and Timișoara poles are again observed. Thus, the largest number of foreign nationalsxxvi is registered in Bucharest-Ilfov, where they represent approximately 3% of the population. It is followed by Cluj and Timișoara, where about 2% of the population is represented by foreign citizens, followed by counties such as Bihor, Arad, Sibiu, Brasov, Alba, Iasi, Constanta and others with values ​​of about 1%.

See the full study here