Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised financial personnel with “international authority” to manage the state’s finances. Given that he has influence over everything from interest rates to infrastructure, it’s questionable how trustworthy he can be.

At the end of the week, when a new government is expected to be announced, the most important appointment will be Mehmet Simsek, a former finance minister who, according to people familiar with the matter, has been asked by Erdogan’s advisers to entrust him with the country’s economic policy.

Investors have expressed dismay at Erdogan’s adventurous approach and his stance that the only way to deal with inflation is to lower borrowing costs to grow the economy.

The key question for the outside world is whether Erdogan will stick to one of them or whether Turkey will move towards a policy that is in line with orthodox economic policy and the global economy.

The Turkish lira falls to a new all-time low after Erdogan’s victory and fell another 1% yesterday to 20.31 pounds per dollar.

The main problem is Turkey’s external financing, as its foreign exchange reserves are depleted and it will soon have to pay more than $200 billion in maturing bonds. According to Anthony Skinner, head of the consulting firm Marlow Global, “despite the economic challenges facing Turkey, Erdogan is unlikely to really delegate responsibility for the economy to others and limit his personal intervention.”

The same analyst suggests that Erdogan “will appoint one or two officials acceptable to the markets, but it is clear who will continue to make decisions.”

The key question is whether it will stick to one of them or whether it will shift towards orthodox economic policy.

As for Simsek, 56, he is the former head of Merrill Lynch and has asked for full autonomy to pursue the policies he sees fit and put the country’s finances in order.

Erdogan’s spokesman said on Monday that Mr. Simsek “will continue to contribute to economic policy” whether or not he joins the government.

Simsek, who supported Erdogan in his election campaign, said he was not interested in a return to “active politics”.

However, according to sources close to the talks, he met with Erdogan on Monday in Ankara.

The independence that Simsek asked for is mostly about monetary policy, which has been dictated by Erdogan so far since March 2021, when central bank governor Sahap Cavcioglu came to power. But the gap on this issue is probably too big to be bridged.

Erdogan’s party’s approach to Simsek is already being commented on in the state media. According to the pro-government newspaper Sabah, Erdogan plans to bring back the old guard of economists to lead the Turkish economy.

Former ministers Sevdet Yilmaz and Lutfi Elvan are expected to join the new Simsek economic staff.