OUR Russianot only failed to carry out its threat to reduce it production oil in revenge sanctionsbut sharply increased its exports, with the main recipients being China And India. In March, the Kremlin said it intended to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day and maintain the reduced level until the end of the year. The Russian Ministry of Energy claims that it has indeed reduced crude oil production to levels close to the target. However, tanker traffic data show that Russian oil exports by sea have risen sharply, while domestic crude oil processing is just starting to decline due to refinery repairs.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil production in Russia peaked in April to around 9.6 million barrels per day, just 200,000 barrels per day less than the February production level and therefore does not confirm the Kremlin’s intention to cut production. Instead, the IEA considers it likely that Russia has increased production to make up for lost profits. In April, Russia’s oil export revenue increased by $1.7 billion to $15 billion, although it still fell by 27% compared to the same period last year.

According to the IEA, Russia exported far more oil in April than in any month since the invasion of Ukraine. Russian oil exports reached 8.3 million bpd, well above the average of 7.7 million and 7.5 million bpd in 2022 and 2021, respectively.

Despite threats to cut production in response to sanctions.

Nearly 80% of these exports were destined for China and India. Industry analysts say the increase in its exports reflects Moscow’s success in finding new customers for its oil after Europe stopped imports, as well as in finding new ships, given that it has lost access to tankers from Western economies due to sanctions.