Within a year or so Italian export To China tripled. This increase in such a short period of time is remarkable in itself, but the problem is that even experts have a hard time pinpointing the cause.

Overall, exports to China topped $3 billion in February, up 131% year-on-year, up from 137% in the previous month. For comparison, Italy exported in January 2022 to China products worth about 1 billion euros. Such an increase would raise questions even under normal circumstances. However, she is even more curious as she rages about war in Ukraine and there are still problems in the supply chain.

First, notes Bloomberg, this is a remarkable event in terms of politics. Because Italy may be the only G7 country to join China’s titanic investment plan, the new Silk Road, but the economic benefits of cooperation from 2019 are limited. At the same time, relations between the two countries cooled significantly under the leadership of former Prime Minister Mario Draghi. And his successor in power, Georgia Meloni, hinted that the country would pull out of the deal before the end of the year.

In addition, data in the pharmaceutical sector raises even more questions. Exports of this category of goods increased in February to 1.84 billion euros from 98.5 million euros a year ago. They account for about a third of all exports to China. Italian media have attributed this boom to China’s demand for UDCA, a substance used in particular in liver preparations that is rumored – although there is no evidence – to help prevent COVID-19.

Therefore, the lifting of sanitary measures in China and the subsequent outbreak of the virus in the country may be the reason for the increase in exports. Of course, Bloomberg notes, the majority of Chinese citizens were stuck in December and January, which means they have recovered before the surge in Italian exports.

And in any case, the demand for UDCA alone cannot explain the boom in exports. In particular, the turnover of Industria Chimica Emiliana, the largest producer of UDCA at the international level, is about 300 million euros, which is significantly less than exports to China.

In addition, the latest relevant data in China does not show bulk imports of these products. Given delivery times, medicines of all kinds should arrive in China in time to be accounted for in April’s figures, but there have been no significant changes.

Another explanation could be a change in local trade.

“Perhaps this is the demand for drugs in China,” Peter Ceretti, director of the Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg. “The big Italian pharmaceutical companies export as much as they can. Or maybe some drugs are transported from Germany and other EU countries. in Italy so they can export them again,” he added.