The return of the Greeks who had gone abroad (brain growth) is one of the biggest bets for the next four years, as the better prospects that the Greek economy shows today compared to the previous decade set the stage for limiting the phenomenon of human capital flight abroad, which has come to be known as brain drain. But data shows that expected brain growth is still slow.

Clean migratory outflow people with Greek citizenship, which peaked during the years of the great recession in Greece and remained at a high level during the years of the great stagnation, although it decreased, but did not go on a positive trajectory.

It is significant, as noted in a recent study by the Eurobank, that in 2021, although the economy recovered sharply from the recession caused by the pandemic, net migration flow remained negative (outflow), indicating that the structural characteristics of the Greek economy that prevent a reversal of this phenomenon are continuing. And, as economists pointedly point out, the real indicator of the recovery of the country’s economy is the creation of a reverse flow of those who left. And many left. According to Eurostat, from 2010 to 2021, the outflow of human capital (brain drain) amounted to 592.2 thousand people. Accordingly, the inbound migration of Greeks (brain gain) amounted to 342,900 people. As a result, there is an outflow of 249,300 people.

Of course, now the net immigration outflow of people with Greek citizenship is gradually decreasing. From 39.1 thousand people in 2012, it decreased to 5.9 thousand people in 2021.

According to financial analysts at Eurobank, the more the outlook for the Greek economy improves, the less uncertainty and unemployment, the more conditions are created for increased investment and the creation of more higher-paying jobs, the greater the likelihood of a net outflow of immigrants. over the past 12 years, turn into an influx (brain gain), which has a beneficial effect on the economy and society as a whole.

Causes

About 592,000 people immigrated between 2010 and 2021. Of these, a little more than half returned.

The economic crisis has dramatically worsened employment prospects in Greece, especially for young and highly skilled Greeks, making emigration an attractive option for many of them. However, the brain drain is not exclusively a symptom of an economic crisis. It reflects the broader production and structural deficiencies of the Greek economy and society that have emerged and worsened in the last decade. In fact, according to him BSE, These include:

• A distorted production model that is not conducive to the creation of quality, productive and well-paid highly skilled jobs.

• Relatively low levels of financial benefits for workers in Greece. Between 2008 and 2018, the net average annual income of graduates fell by 36%, and the gap with the corresponding EU average (26,704 euros) exceeded 50%.

• Poor working conditions in Greece.

• Low level of subjective and material well-being, as measured by quality of life indicators.

According to the latest Higher Education Quality Report 2021, prepared annually by the National Higher Education Authority, the employment rate of people aged 25-64 with a tertiary education is very low compared to the OECD and EU averages and, accordingly, they have the highest unemployment rate. high among these countries. Earnings of workers with tertiary education are only slightly higher than those of secondary school graduates, while in other countries they are more than twice as high. This can be assessed by experts as the result of a policy of social cohesion, since the wage gap is not very large, as is the case in countries that follow a policy of low inequality, such as Scandinavia.

However, in Greece the small wage gap does not come about as a result of social policies. On the contrary, experts believe that this is due to the lack of demand for highly specialized services, which is a direct consequence of … the drain of specialized human resources abroad.

And this, as a result, is the loss of development dynamics, the creation of a deficit in critical sectors, the aggravation of an already big demographic problem, the creation of significant budget costs due to the non-return of public investments. on the education of those who leave (estimated at €34,037 per person for tertiary graduates) and ultimately undermine the country’s transition to a higher value-added economy.

How do we keep Greek minds here?

In order to effectively manage human capital and the flow of highly skilled workers so that they work for the benefit of the Greek economy and society, SEB in its study proposes two axes of the strategy. The first axis concerns the general modernization of the productive capacity of the Greek economy so that it can create many quality and well-paid jobs in extrovert and high value-added sectors. The constituent elements of this productive transformation are the increase in the share of industry in the long term to 15% of GDP, the productive expansion of enterprises in Greece in order to increase their productivity, the improvement of the business environment, the completion of the digital transformation process of the Greek economy in order to take advantage of the opportunities created by the 4th industrial revolution, and strengthening meritocracy and transparency.

According to the National Documentation Centre, 31.3% of Greek PhDs, i.e. the most educated part of the country’s human resources, have worked abroad at some point, while 13.4% are still working outside of Greece. They decided to go abroad not for personal, but mainly for professional reasons, such as professional growth, better financial rewards, better working conditions and, of course, work in their specialty; a very significant proportion of them living abroad work in the AEI (40.3%) and research centers (15%). 75.2% of PhDs settled mainly in London, Paris, Brussels, New York. 67.5% of PhDs went to countries characterized as innovative, precisely because a country’s strong innovative potential is a decisive factor in attracting highly educated human resources.

The second axis, according to the BSE, concerns the implementation of a more specific targeted policy that will facilitate the repatriation of emigrated human resources and the retention of those who are already thinking of leaving the country.