The Institute for Economic and Industrial Research raised its forecast for development in 2023 by 2.4% compared to 1.4% 3 months ago, following the overall trend among organizations after positive data ELSTAT for a growth rate of 5.9% in 2022. The government forecasts a growth rate of 2.3%, while IMF yesterday he also revised his forecast upward to 2.6%.

However, its CEO I LOVE Professor Nikos Vettaspresenting the fund’s quarterly report yesterday, left no room for complacency and warned that it would be an illusion to think that Greek economy it is on the machine that high growth, investment and a reduction in unemployment are a given and that it can distribute benefits simultaneously, as in the previous two years. “Despite the progress made since 2010,” he said, “structurally we are one of the poorest countries and steps must be taken in leaps and bounds if we want to converge with wages in Europe.”

On the eve of the elections, he emphasized that in order to consolidate the momentum of development, targeting in three key areas of economic policy is necessary:

1. Return to primary surplus by reaching investment grade as soon as possible.

2. Strengthening infrastructure and reforms.

3. Fighting inflation so that the country’s competitiveness does not suffer and intensive pressure on households does not continue.

It would be an illusion to think that high growth, investment and unemployment are a given.

Mr. Vettas also noted that the Greek economy is facing serious challenges, both in terms of the international environment and its own structural features. The main challenge from the international environment is a tight monetary policy, which is acquiring permanent characteristics, as a result of which money becomes more expensive and selective. He warned in this context about the risk of “entering the country within” the markets in the event of a new crisis, which is possible.

In addition, with regard to the problems associated with the structural characteristics of the economy, he mentioned structural inflation, which remains high, and a return to the double deficit, fiscal and external balance, which is important to balance in the near future.

The IOBE report projects a 1.3% increase in private consumption in 2023, up from 7.9% in 2022, and gross fixed capital investment of 10%, up from 11.6% in 2022. It is projected that exports will increase by 3.2% compared to 4.9% in 2022, and imports by 2.6% against 10.9% in 2022. inflation it is projected to decline to 4.3% from 9.6% in 2022 and unemployment to 11% from 12.4% in 2022.

The report notes that 2022 saw the biggest drop in unemployment since 2014, down 2.3 percentage points to 12.4%. However, Mr. Vettas argued that unemployment “is unlikely to fall much further, to the level of 5-6%”.

In its World Economic Outlook, released yesterday during the spring session, the International Monetary Fund predicts growth this year at 2.6% against the previous forecast of 1.8%, while the eurozone is projected to grow by 0 ,8%. For 2025, he predicts a growth rate of 1.5% against the previous forecast of 1.4%.

The fund also forecasts inflation to fall to 4% this year (vs. 3.2% forecast in autumn) and to 2.9% in 2024. The current account deficit is projected to decline to 8% of GDP from 9.7% of GDP. in 2022 and up to 6% of GDP in 2024. Unemployment is estimated to fall to 11.2% this year and 10.4% in 2024.