The return to primary surpluses from this year is confirmed by the International Monetary Fund in its Fiscal Monitor, a day after its forecasts for growth of 2.6% and inflation of 4% in our country. At the same time, he predicts their steady growth until at least 2028, while the fund also predicts a steady decline in debt to 143.6% by the end of 2028 without tax increases.

In particular, the Fund expects primary surplus this year it will be 0.4% of GDP and rise to 1.4% in 2024, continuing to rise to 2% in 2028. financial balanceThe IMF predicts that the deficit will fall from 8% in 2021 to 4% of GDP last year. The decline is expected to be gradual, with 2.4% expected this year and 1.3% in 2024. This will be followed by a further slowdown to 1.1% in 2025, to 0.9% in 2026, to 0.8% in 2027 and to 0.7% in 2028.

Income and expenses

The improvement in fiscal performance is expected to be associated with larger cuts government spending in connection with Government revenue. In particular, the IMF predicts that government revenues as a percentage of GDP from their peak of 51.7% in 2023, driven by additional indirect tax revenues generated by the surge in inflation, should slow down. up 49.7% this year45.7% in 2024, 45.2% in 2025, 44.7% in 2026 and 43.6% and 43% in 2027 and 2028

A downward trend is also projected for government spending, which as a percentage of GDP peaked at 55.5% in 2022 due to support measures against the energy crisis. They are expected to fall to 50.3% in 2023, 47% in 2024 and then to 46.2%, 45.5%, 44.4% and 43.7% respectively in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 years.

Debt Reduction

Concerning debt amountThe IMF is also forecasting a downtrend, although the report includes a debt estimate based on liabilities that Greece could capitalize on remaining debt and interest on official sector (mainly EU) loans that are in a 10-year grace period. .

Based on this condition, the IMF predicts that debt will fall by 33.8% from 177.4% of GDP in 2022 to 143.6% by the end of 2028.

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