Not only did they close at all-time highs Greek export in 2022, but there are products that are constantly gaining a share of their competitors in international markets. And if one of them olive oil which was favored by the circumstance of the extraordinary curtailment of production in Spain, the same cannot be said of them LED bulbs and other products – “green” cars technologies such as electric meters but also Solar water heaterswhich are steadily expanding their penetration into overseas markets, creating a solid base for high value-added exports. In fact, the fact that 2023 is also off to a positive start, with high tech remaining a key driver of growth and increased investment in research and development, increases the likelihood of medium-term export growth of 8% pa (in real terms) compared to 5%. which is the base scenario, is estimated by the Office of Economic Analysis. National Bank.

At least the export of goods, which was essentially the only “lifeline” of the Greek economy during the years of the crisis, even before the start of a large development of tourism, has confirmed its endurance both during the pandemic and in the recent inflationary crisis. During the period 2010-2016, when Greek business faced the most serious difficulties associated with the crisis, the real annual growth of exports of goods amounted to 5.3%.

The upward trend continued in the period 2017-2019, and in fact in 2018 the contribution of merchandise exports to the real rate of change in Greece’s GDP reached 1.5 percentage points, the highest figure in almost all of the previous twenty years. Thus, if in 2009 the export of goods as a percentage of GDP was only 8.5%, then in 2019 it reached 18%. During the pandemic, Greek exports, with the exception of oil products, persevered and closed 2020 with a positive sign.

The probability of medium-term export growth of 8% per year increases.

However, we still have a long way to go as the country is still dependent on imports. This was especially evident in 2022, when also due to the inflationary crisis, the trade deficit increased by 50.7% compared to 2021, reaching 38.37 billion euros. The difficulty of entering international markets for many small businesses, the low degree of standardization of mainly agricultural products, the most typical example of which is olive oil, or the export of PDO products also at low prices, such as feta, to find shelf space in Europe’s discount chains, are one of the structural problems of Greek exports.

LED lamps and electricity meters

Perhaps the Greek products with the highest share in Europe are cotton, compost and olives, with shares reaching even 80%, but this does not mean that Greece is now a country that only exports primary products. In addition to industries with strong traditions and long history in Greece, such as solar water heaters, there are others that are developing in recent years, already gaining an important position in foreign markets and claiming – why not? top in its category.

Although they were developed before her energy inflationary crisis, in fact, it was an opportunity to increase their sales. The reason for the emergence of LED lamps, electric meters and solar water heaters, three products based on environmentally friendly technologies that stand out in 2022 for their efficiency and in some way show how to change the structure of Greek exports.

Of particular interest are NGE research data on LED lamps, solar water heaters and electricity meters:

• Products with LED technology (with an annual export of 400 million euros, mainly to Western Europe and the Balkans) have continuously increased their penetration in international markets for five consecutive quarters while improving their relative prices.

• Solar water heaters (with an annual export of 100 mln.
euros, mainly to Western Europe and the Middle East) have steadily increased their relative prices over the past twelve months, and this now appears to be happening while increasing their international market penetration.

• Electricity meters (with an annual export of 200 million euros, mainly to Western Europe and North America) have steadily increased their penetration into international markets over the past twelve months and are gradually doing so without the need to maintain an aggressive pricing policy. In fact, it is worth noting that preliminary figures show an upward trend in exports of the products in question and high-tech products in general in 2023. “Despite the uncertainty of the economic situation, estimates of the progress of the European economy (as our most important export market) are At the same time, Greek enterprises remain optimistic.

The key element remains the superiority of their dynamics Greek exports high-tech, as their orders show a clearly stronger trend compared to both other Greek exports and European high-tech exports,” the authors of the study emphasize.

From the analysis carried out in the NGE study of 129 individual products (which constitute 80% of Greek exports), significant discrepancies in characteristics were revealed:

• Approximately 25% of products managed to gain a share in the international markets in the last quarter (growth in volumes and prices).

However, only 3 out of 30 products in this category (LED, gourmet and paper packaging) remain in this category for four consecutive quarters, which allows us to conclude that they are pursuing a successful strategy and not just making temporary gains.

• Expansion of the research category for all products that achieved an increase in penetration for four consecutive quarters (either with rising or falling prices) stand out as more dynamic products related to energy saving (LED and electric meters), reaching an increase share in the latter quarter by 3-4 percentage points.

The annual export of LED products reaches 400 million euros and is mainly sent to Western Europe and the Balkans.

A significant part of these machines are produced in Greece, and the rest is promoted in our neighboring countries by Greek companies that act as the exclusive representatives of multinational corporations, thereby reducing Greece to the role of a regional center, facilitating the transfer of know-how. and strengthening commercial networks in the region.

According to the study, the main market for the three main clean technology products exported by Greece (LEDs, electric meters and solar water heaters) is the Western European region, which provides a significant degree of stability and usually means high selling prices. . In particular, 58% of solar water heaters, 54% of electric meters and 45% of LED lamps are exported to Western Europe. The main market for lamps is the Balkans, as 48% of exports go there. On the other hand, an important market for Greek solar water heaters, besides Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa, are regions that account for 14% and 10% of exports respectively. Greek electricity meters, in turn, also have an important place in North America, a region that accounts for 25% of this category’s exports.

Great demand for olive oil, but we sell it in bulk

An NGE study estimates a revenue loss of 200 million euros per year, or 1.3 euros/kg, due to the fact that more than 70% of exported Greek olive oil is supplied unstandardized. And this is because Greek olive oil in bulk is exported at an average price of €3.8/kg, while standardized olive oil is exported at an average price of €5.1/kg.

In fact, the price of 3.8 euros/kg is considered high and prevailed last year due to strong demand caused by reduced production in Spain. Typically, Greek olive oil is sold in Italy for less than 3 euros/kg.

Perhaps worst of all, Greek olive oil is exported in bulk, mostly to Italy and to a lesser extent to Spain, blended with other olive oils, usually of lower quality, standardized there, and exported as an Italian or Spanish product at a much higher price. . Thus, while only 29% of the olive oil exported by Greece is standardized, the corresponding percentage of Spain is 71%, while Italy exports almost exclusively standardized olive oil (95%).

In 2022, Greece exported 127,000 tons to Italy at €3.9/kg and 19,000 tons to Spain at €3.1/kg. Exports, on the other hand, to Germany, France and the US, based on standardized olive oil, were at a much higher price, between 5 and 5.4 euros/kg.

However, in 2022, Greek olive oil reached record levels due to favorable times for increased production in Greece and a significant reduction in production in Spain. Greece’s olive oil production hit a six-year high in 2022, while Spain’s production fell by 48%. Thus, Greece reached a 20-year high in export volumes (+157% in the quarter from November 2022 to January 2023 compared to the quarter from November 2021 to January 2022), doubling its share in world production (up to 13% from 7%) and at the same time increasing its prices by 37%. Feta and tobacco exports also reached a six-year high in 2022. On the other hand, copper, olives, fresh fish and cotton saw sharp drops of up to 25%.

In addition to olive oil, only about food industryhighly extroverted industry, won a significant market share in 2022. According to the NBG study, the share of food products, including olive oil, increased by 0.09 percentage points.

The textile industry recorded the largest decline in share, at 0.38 percentage points (mainly due to Greece’s high share of the overall shrinking cotton market).