Even though the distance to be overcome Hellas for her recovery investment grade it is small, the road is not straight and not easy.

Significant improvements on the fiscal front and strong performance Greek economy are certainly powerful “weapons” to achieve this “milestone”, but the international economic environment creates serious problems and “thorns” that complicate the prospects for modernization.

As stated Bank of Greece in the context of the 2022 Commander’s Report, positive fiscal developments allow Greece to be upgraded to investment grade during 2023.

In addition, as he explains, such positive developments only in 2022 explain the recent modernization of houses, which took the country one step away from it.

However, as noted in the report, this upgrade should not be expected to happen automatically, “especially given concerns about a slowdown in global economic activity during 2023, but also worsening international financial conditions, which will contribute to a downward rather than upward credit rating cycle internationally.”

Therefore, according to the Bank of Greece, it cannot be ruled out that they will prefer to wait at home to see how events develop at the international level and what the consequences for the Greek economy might be.

According to international analysts, the impact of monetary tightening has just begun to be felt in the global economy, while the effects of the recent banking turmoil in the US and Europe will begin to appear in the “indicators” of economic activity in a few months. conditions, such as surveys on bank lending (data for the second quarter, for example, will be published in August).

As noted by the Bank of Greece, “Houses can take into account any positive changes in credit ratings after they are implemented, that is, after fiscal targets and expected macroeconomic indicators are achieved.”

Thus, the prospects for reaching the target investment level are positive, according to the Bank of England, “especially if the primary surplus target is met and the forecasts for the growth rate of the Greek economy in 2023 are confirmed.”

At the same time, however, “due to the slowdown in economic activity at the international level and the deterioration in the prospects for the creditworthiness of states and companies, due to the increase in borrowing costs, an increase to investment grade should not be expected. automatically when certain fiscal or macroeconomic targets are met.”

Also, as he adds, “it must be taken into account that the parameters of credit ratings feed them after the realization of the sizes. Thus, an increase in the rating of the Greek state in the investment category is quite possible if it is seen that the course of macroeconomic and fiscal indicators in 2023 confirms the positive outlook.”

However, the election result will play an important role for the chambers, so the investment level can be reached after the formation of a new government. In addition, the next government’s commitment to, and optional achievement of, 2023 fiscal targets may be enough to persuade rating agencies to upgrade Greece to investment grade.