The rice crisis could be the next food crisis to come, and it will hit Asia particularly hard, where 90% of the world’s rice is produced and consumed, the Economist estimates. Global demand is rising and production is falling, while rice has been blamed for both rising rates of diabetes and the vicious cycle of climate change.

Global demand levels, mainly in Africa and Asia, are skyrocketing, but production has not kept pace. Soil, water and the necessary labor force are becoming increasingly scarce.

Climate change poses an even greater threat, with warmer temperatures damaging crops and increasingly frequent floods destroying rice fields. However, in addition to being a victim of climate change, rice is also a major contributor to it, as rice fields emit large amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas.

Demand for rice is expected to rise sharply in the coming decades, with 5.3 billion people living in Asia by 2050, up from 4.7 billion today, and 2.5 billion people in Africa, up from 1.4 billion. that this increase will lead to a 30% increase in demand for rice, according to a study published in the journal Nature Food. And only the richest Asian countries, like Japan and South Korea, have bread and pasta that breaks the rice monopoly on the world’s largest continent.

Harvest

However, rice yield growth in Asia is slowing down. Over the past decade, yields have grown by an average of just 0.9% per year, compared with about 1.3% in the previous decade, according to the UN. The decline was sharper in Southeast Asia, where growth fell from 1.4% to 0.4%. Indonesia and the Philippines already import a lot of rice. If crop yields do not increase, these countries will become increasingly dependent on others to feed 400 million people, according to a study by Nature Food.

For years, production has kept pace with rising demand thanks to the lasting effects of the so-called Green Revolution that began in the 1960s. fertilizers and irrigation systems. It was introduced as China was coming out of a famine and India was on the brink of another, so ir8 saved lives.

As ir8 spread across Asia, from the Philippines to Pakistan, rice yields increased. The higher productivity made rice a more attractive crop, so more resources were devoted to it.

The institute has developed new varieties of rice that could replicate this success. They are more productive and climate resistant and require less water. However, meeting the growing demand seems harder than it was in the 1960s. Urbanization and relentless land fragmentation are making rice fields smaller and smaller.

In addition, water, an absolutely essential commodity for growing rice, is also becoming less available, and rising global temperatures are also critical. A 2004 study showed that a 1°C increase in the minimum temperature resulted in a 10% reduction in yield. Sea level rise, another result of warming, is already causing salt to seep into the low-lying areas of the Mekong Delta, reducing rice production there. Severe floods last year in Pakistan, the world’s fourth largest rice exporter, destroyed about 15% of its crop.

But rice is also to blame for global warming, in percentage terms equal to the percentage of air transport. Irrigation of rice fields deprives the underlying soil of oxygen. This promotes the growth of bacteria that produce methane. Therefore, rice production accounts for 12% of total methane emissions and 1.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions, which is comparable to the aviation sector. Vietnam’s rice fields produce far more carbon equivalent than the country’s transport…

Another growing issue is the nutritional quality of rice. The grain is rich in glucose, which contributes to diabetes and obesity, and low in iron and zinc, two important nutrients. In South Asia, the rise in diabetes and malnutrition can be attributed to overconsumption of rice.

Dealing with so many problems is difficult. If the first green revolution was about productivity, says Jean Ballier, CEO of the Institute, then the next one should focus on “systems, not solutions at the factory or rice level.” This calls for improved rice policies as well as improved varieties.

Scientists from the institute and other scientific organizations have already created varieties of rice that are resistant to floods, drought and heat. They also produced more nutritious strains. These changes, combined with agricultural innovations such as direct seeding, a planting method that requires less water and labor, could reduce environmental damage and increase yields.

Experiments in Asia have confirmed this. According to a study published in the journal Food Policy in 2021, flood-vulnerable Bangladeshi farmers who grew the Sub1 flood-tolerant rice variety saw 6 percent higher yields and 55 percent higher profits.

The challenge is to introduce improved seeds and methods on a large scale. Many farmers don’t even know they exist. Some people don’t want to try something new. A 2017–2018 nationwide survey of rice farmers in India found that only 26% used varieties released after 2004.

Governments can play a big role in highlighting the benefits of new varieties and methods. Vietnam is leading. He recently announced an ambitious plan to grow “low-carbon” rice. He promotes this as a means to save labor and improve efficiency.

Governments also need to do much more to reduce people’s dependence on rice. The first “Green Revolution” prevented the Asian catastrophe – famine. Today the situation may not be as dangerous, but the problem is something bigger.

Source: Economist.