On the second exit markets for 2023, Greece unexpectedly moves forward with extradition new 5 year bondto capitalize on the positive climate in the bond market, and to avoid any potential instability that the pre-election period may cause.

Her announcement “Exit” so it is not at all coincidental that this happened a few hours after the announcement 21 May national elections. The official election date removes significant uncertainty for investors, who now have a definite horizon for future elections. pre-election period. This also explains the fact that Greek bonds yesterday they did not come under any pressure – unlike the Athens Stock Exchange, where the actions of several players who preferred to liquidate and take a wait-and-see position in the next pre-election period, were able to bring down the market.

However, since the entire election process will take a long time, this may cause volatility in the market. So INSTRUCTIONS with this move, he prefers to cover much of the year’s total publishing activity early on and not start a new publication in the middle of the pre-election period. There is no need for liquidity. However, it is important to have a regular Greek presence in the markets. Since the second round of elections is in July, the next opportunity to “leave” will be in September, and thus ODDIX will have eight months of “absence”, which does not radiate normality.

The new 5-year bond issue, which is being “managed” by BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Piraeus Bank, aims to raise €2.5bn-3bn. estimate that demand will be very strong with a significant oversupply in the supply book.

As for the interest rate, it is estimated to be 3.7-3.85%, depending on the level and quality of demand, and is close to the yield of the corresponding bonds issued by Italy last month.

The purpose of the issue is to raise 2.5-3 billion euros. The interest rate is estimated at 3.7%–3.85%.

This move will allow ODDIX to raise 85%-93% of the total issuance planned for this year, which is 7 billion euros (8 billion euros if there is a green bond issue). It is noted that in January the Greek state has already attracted 3.5 billion euros from new 10-year bonds.

This movement also allows the ODDIX to move comfortably according to the situation, without pressure or rushing. According to K.when, for example, Greece leaves the election behind and perhaps even reaches investment grade even from the rating agency, ODDIX could take advantage of a favorable climate with positive surprises for the markets. In this context, new early repayments of GLF loans through the use of cash reserves are not ruled out, however, the decision on which, however, will be made closer to the end of the year, depending on developments.

Resilience demonstrated by Greek bonds: 10-year bonds showed the biggest spread reduction in the euro area since July 2022, when European Central Bank began to raise interest rates and by about 80 basis points, although they are now trading at the same levels as the corresponding Italian securities, this is proof that Greece is not considered a country with a high level of risk, despite the fact that it does not have investment grade. , and for this reason, demand for 5-year bonds is expected to be high.

As ODDIX CEO noted yesterday, Dimitris Tsakonas, in the context of the conference of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, with the conditions of purchase has already been granted an investment class. “In my opinion, we could buy it in 2021, when we first issued 30-year bonds, which were oversubscribed by 8-9 times, and investors came in who were forced by PSI to give their money to Greece for 30 years. It was tangible proof of what it means for markets to trust Greek debt,” he characteristically noted.

At the same panel with Mr. Tsakonas, there were analysts from rating agencies who spoke about the possibility of restoring investment grade. Fitch Principal Analyst Alex Muscatelli stressed that it is important to continue the economic policies of recent years and that a sustainable downward debt ratio trajectory is the “key” to achieve this milestone. As he noted, a new renewal of the country is possible, as improvements on the fiscal front and in the banking sector continue. Capital flows from the Recovery Fund will be essential to support supply and demand, and this will also be facilitated by public investment.

Moody’s chief analyst Stephen Dyck said that for Greece to reach investment grade, the house wants to see tangible improvements in economic indicators such as GDP and quality of development, while stressing that it needs continued reforms and fiscal policy. adaptation to have more sustainable results for growth.